This latest installment covers policy proposals on data centers, jobs and automation, energy and water infrastructure, education, and other out-of-the-box ideas for Texas’s tech-driven economy

The survey of 1,048 likely Texas voters was conducted from July 15 to July 17, 2026 and has a margin of error of ±3.4 percentage points. The full topline is available here, and crosstabs are available upon request.

Jobs and Automation Proposals

Takeaways: All four job and automation proposals drew solid support from Texans, led by workplace fairness protections around AI hiring, with Texans also backing making Texas the home of the AI economy, an automation tax, and a retraining fund for AI-displaced workers.

• AI in Hiring and Workplace Fairness: More than 90% of companies now use AI somewhere in the hiring process, especially for sourcing and screening resumes. Research has shown these tools can favor resumes that sound similar to AI-generated text, putting applicants who didn’t use AI at a disadvantage.

• About three-fourths of voters (74%) support a Texas law requiring employers to disclose when AI is used to screen job applications, and banning AI tools that show evidence of bias, while just 13% oppose (+61 net support).

• Voters across party lines showed solid support with Republicans expressing the highest levels of support (+64), followed by Democrats (+58) and independent voters (+58).

• White voters (+68) are the most supportive, followed by Latino (+57) and Black (+29) voters.

• Making Texas the Home of the AI Economy: Texas is attracting massive AI investment, but most of the jobs are going to workers recruited from out of the state.

  • A state initiative that trains Texas community college students for AI and tech jobs, in partnership with companies building here, registers solid support, with 71% supporting and 13% opposing (+58 net support).

• Voters across party lines showed solid support, with Democrats (+57) and independents (+50) backing the plank and Republicans posting the highest net support at +61.

• Latino voters (+62) are the most supportive, followed by White (+57) and Black (+49) voters.

• Automation Tax: As companies replace Texas workers with automation and AI, the tax base shrinks because machines don’t pay payroll taxes. Nearly 3 in 10 companies say they’ve already replaced jobs with AI.

  • A modest tax on companies that deploy automation to replace Texas workers, with revenue going into a restraining and transition fund draws solid support with 67% supporting and 17% opposing (+50 net support).

• Across parties, support was strongest among Democrats (+55), followed by independents (+53), and Republicans (+42).

• White (+53) and Latino (+50) voters were more supportive of the plank compared to Black voters (+32).

• Making AI Work for Texas Workers: Automation is already reshaping work in trucking, manufacturing, and customer service, industries that employ hundreds of thousands of Texans in middle-skill jobs. As companies adopt AI to cut labor costs, some workers are being pushed out faster than they can retrain or find comparable pay.

  • A state fund, paid for by a small fee on companies that replace workers with AI, to retrain displaced Texans was the least popular plank in the section with 59% supporting and 22% opposing (+37 net support).

  • Support for this policy was strongest among independents (+42) followed by Democrats (+40), and Republicans (+30).

  • White (+39) and Latino (+34) voters posted the strongest net support, followed by Black voters (+24).

Grid & Energy and Water Proposals

Takeaways: The full series of grid & energy and water proposals drew strong support from a broad set of Texas voters. AI data cooling centers was the most popular proposal tested in the poll. Managing AI’s demand on the Texas grid, energy workforce development, and positioning Texas as the global energy export hub registered solid net support as well.

• AI Data Center Cooling AI data centers consume millions of gallons of water a day for cooling, adding pressure on Texas’ already depleted aquifers as construction grows in drought-prone areas. These data centers currently face no obligation to measure or offset their water use.

  • An overwhelming majority of voters (79%) support requiring large AI data centers to disclose water consumption, avoid overused aquifers, and fund conservation projects while just 9% oppose it (+70 net support).

  • The partisan breakdown saw the highest net support from Republicans (+77) followed by independents (+66) and Democrats (+64).

  • The proposal was more strongly supported by white (+78) and Latino (+66) voters compared to Black voters (+35).

• Managing AI’s Demand on the Texas Grid: Over 200 gigawatts of new power demand, mostly from AI data centers, has been requested on the Texas grid. For reference, this is more than double current peak capacity. Unpaid costs would shift onto Texas families and small businesses.

  • Three-fourths of voters (75%) support requiring large AI data centers to fund their own grid upgrades, rather than passing costs onto ratepayers compared to 11% who oppose it (+64 net support).

  • Republicans (+70) and independents (+64) posted strong support while Democrats were more tepid but still net positive (+57).

  • White voters (+72) are the most supportive, followed by Latino (+49) and Black (+39) voters.

• Energy Workforce Development: The energy transition is creating new jobs in Texas in solar installation, battery storage, grid management, and AI-driven energy systems, but Texas workers aren’t always first in line for these roles.

  • A Texas energy workforce initiative training Texans, including oil and gas workers whose jobs are changing, for the high-paying energy jobs of the next decade registers solid support, with 73% supporting and 10% opposing (+63 net support).

  • Democrats (+67) expressed the strongest levels of support, followed by independents (+63) and Republicans (+60).

  • Support for the policy is concentrated among Latino voters (+64), followed by White (+62) and Black (+54) voters.

• Texas as the Global Energy Export Hub: Texas already produces more oil, gas, and renewables than most countries, but much of the infrastructure to export that energy is bottlenecked. Expanding pipelines, transmission lines, ports, and related infrastructure would not only help Texas capture more economic value, but also strengthen energy security by making the state and the nation less vulnerable to supply disruptions and price shocks.

  • Accelerating Texas energy export infrastructure was the least popular proposal tested in this category with 69% supporting and 11% opposing (+58 net support).

  • Support remains consistent across party lines with Republicans (+63) followed by independents (+62) and Democrats (+48).

  • Support for the policy is strongest among White (+61) and Latino (+58) voters compared to Black voters (+40).

Education for the Future, AI Governance, and Out Of the Box Proposals

Takeaways: All education for the future, AI governance, and out-of-the-box policy planks tested received solid support. Requiring data center companies to bid for community approval by committing to public investment, and regulating AI political content, registered the strongest support in this category. Positioning Texas as a biotech hub, using data as a public resource, an AI literacy requirement, and sovereign tech infrastructure also drew solid net support.

• Data Center Bidding Process: Texas is seeing a wave of new AI data center construction, but most communities get little say in what they receive in return.

  • Three-fourths of voters (75%) support requiring companies that build data centers in Texas to bid for community approval by committing to public benefits like affordable housing, job training, and local infrastructure upgrades, compared to 10% who oppose it (+65 net support).

  • Democrats (+70) are the most supportive, followed by Republicans (+62) and independents (+61).

  • The proposal also resonated across racial groups, but was most supported by Latino voters (+69), followed by White (+65) and Black (+48) voters.

• Regulating AI Political Content: AI can now generate convincing fake videos of political candidates to spread misinformation, and Texas has no laws addressing these political deepfakes.

  • A majority of voters (76%) support a Texas law requiring political ads to disclose AI-generated or manipulated content of candidates, while only 12% oppose it (+64 net support).

  • The second most popular policy tested in this category, this had consistent support across parties, with Republicans and independents tied at +66, followed by Democrats (+61).

  • White voters (+71) are the most supportive, followed by Latino (+56) and Black (+41) voters.

• Texas Longevity and Biotech Hub: Texas has world-class medical research institutions in Houston, Austin, and Dallas, and the next frontier of medicine could create the next Silicon Valley here.

• A state initiative to make Texas the global center of longevity and biotech research, including fast-track approvals and recruiting top scientists, draws 68% support and 11% opposing (+57 net support).

• Republicans (+62) are the most supportive, with Democrats (+56) and independents (+48) somewhat more measured.

• Latino voters (+61) are the most supportive, followed by White (+60) and Black (+39) voters.

• Data as a Public Resource: Tech companies collect massive amounts of data generated by Texans and profit from it without sharing anything with the people who created it. Some estimates put Meta’s earnings at roughly $1,000 per person per year - which adds up to around $31.71 billion per year in Texas alone

  • Sixty eight percent of voters support treating Texan-generated data as a public resource, requiring companies to pay into a state fund when they profit from it, while 11% oppose it (+57 net support).

  • Support for the policy was strongest among White (+60) and Latino (+59) voters followed by Black voters (+37).

  • Independents (+62) are the most supportive, with Republicans (+56) and Democrats (+53) following closely behind.

• AI Literacy Requirement: 66% of education and business leaders say they would not hire someone without AI literacy skills, and Texas risks falling behind economically if teenagers don’t graduate high school with those tools.

  • Requiring every Texas high school to offer computer science and AI literacy courses, along with funded teacher training, registers strong support (71%) with only 16% opposing (+55 net support).

  • Republicans (+62) are the most supportive, with Democrats (+51) and independents (+48) registering more tepid net support.

  • The policy resonated strongly among White voters (+58), followed by Black (+51) and Latino (+50) voters.

• Sovereign Tech Infrastructure: Texas relies almost entirely on out-of-state and foreign-owned technology for critical infrastructure like power grids, water systems, and communications networks, with no readily available domestic provider to fill the gap.

  • Requiring critical Texas infrastructure to use domestically owned and auditable technology, even if it raised project costs by up to 10%, was the least popular proposal tested in the entire poll, with 52% support and 17% opposing (+35 net support).

  • Support is consistent across party: Republicans (+37), independents (+36), and Democrats (+33).

  • White voters (+39) are the most supportive, followed by Black voters (+31) and Latino voters (+27).

This first installment covers policy proposals across four areas: childcare and early childhood, family support and community, education and schools, and other out-of-the-box ideas for Texas kids and families.

The survey of 1,048 likely Texas voters was conducted from July 15 to July 17, 2026 and has a margin of error of ±3.4 percentage points. The full topline is available here, and crosstabs are available upon request.

Childcare and Early Childhood Proposals

Takeaways: Every childcare and early childhood proposal tested received solid support. Tax incentives for employers who help with childcare drew the strongest support, followed by universal pre-k, childcare worker wages, and cutting regulatory costs for childcare providers.

• Employer Childcare Incentives: Insufficient childcare costs the Texas economy billions each year, as the lack of options forces many workers to leave the workforce, yet most employers offer no support. Tax incentives for Texas employers who provide on-site childcare, subsidies, or flexible scheduling for parents drew the strongest support of any childcare proposal tested in this category.

  • 79% of voters support it while just 10% oppose it (+69 net support).

  • The measure sees overwhelming support across party lines, with Democrats (+78), independents (+68), and Republicans (+64) all in favor.

  • Support was strongest among Latino voters (+74), with white (+71) and Black (+60) voters also showing substantial majorities in favor.

• Universal Pre-K: More than half of Texas counties are considered “childcare deserts,” and the state currently only funds pre-K for a portion of eligible four-year-olds.

  • Expanding access to publicly funded pre-K for all Texas 4-year-olds registers 78% support, while just 12% oppose the measure (+66 net support).

  • The policy receives overwhelming support from Democrats (+80), followed by independents (+70) and Republicans (+53).

  • Support was strongest among Latino (+82) and Black (+78) voters, with white voters showing comparatively lower but still solid support (+59).

• Childcare Worker Wages: Childcare workers in Texas earn less than $13 an hour on average, leading to chronic understaffing and high turnover at the places we trust to care for our youngest children.

  • Three-fourths of voters (75%) support establishing a state minimum wage for licensed childcare workers, funded through a combination of state and federal dollars, while just 14% oppose it (+61 net support).

  • Democrats (+76) and independents (+65) posted strong support, while Republicans (+46) were more tepid but still net positive.

  • Latino (+77) voters were the most supportive, followed by Black (+58) and white (+57) voters.

• Cutting Regulatory Costs for Childcare Providers: Texas is facing a childcare shortage, and regulatory red tape for new providers has made the crisis harder to solve. Licensing can take six months to a year and cost tens of thousands of dollars, deterring Texans from opening new childcare centers.

  • More than half of voters (57%) support lowering timeframes, fees, and regulations to make it faster and cheaper to open new childcare programs, compared to 27% who oppose (+30 net support).

  • The partisan breakdown saw the highest net support from Democrats (+41), followed by Republicans (+23) and independents (+19).

  • The proposal was more strongly supported by Black (+47) and Latino (+40) voters than white voters (+20).

Family Support and Community Proposals

Takeaways: Every Family Support and Community plank drew majority support, and four of five topped 70%. Holding privatized foster care companies accountable was the most popular proposal tested in the entire poll, with net support ranging from +45 to +83 across party lines on the planks in this section.

• Privatized Foster Care Accountability: Texas contracts with private organizations to provide many foster care services, a system that has been under legal scrutiny for over a decade.

  • An overwhelming majority of voters (84%) favor requiring private foster care companies to meet basic safety standards and terminating contracts with those that fail; just 4% oppose (+80 net support), making this the most popular proposal tested in the poll.

  • Republicans register the highest net support of any group (+83), followed by independents (+77) and Democrats (+75).

  • The proposal is equally strong among white and Latino voters (+81 each), with somewhat lower but still substantial support among Black voters (+57).

• Family Resource Centers: Parents in Texas increasingly lack access to community support, pediatric mental health care, and basic parenting resources, especially in rural and suburban areas.

  • Creating a state program that funds resource centers in every county, serving as hubs for parents to connect with other families and access services without navigating a bureaucracy, registers strong support, with 76% backing the plank and 12% opposed (+64 net support).

  • The policy receives overwhelming support from Democrats (+79) and independents (+63), with Republicans following closely behind (+54).

  • Across racial demographics, the policy found its strongest audience among Latino (+76), followed by Black (+68) and white (+59) voters.

• After-School and Youth Programming: Millions of Texas kids spend hours after school with no supervision or programming — a recipe for disengagement, even though after-school programs have proven to boost academic performance and reduce chronic absenteeism.

  • A majority of Texans, 76%, support a major state investment in after-school programs in every Texas school district, compared to just 12% who oppose it (+64 net support).

  • Voters across party lines showed solid support, with Democrats expressing the highest levels of enthusiasm (+78), followed closely by independents (+63) and Republicans (+52).

  • Latino (+72) and Black (+71) voters show the highest support, followed closely by white (+58) voters.

• Pediatric Mental Health Access: Texas ranks near the bottom nationally in mental health resources per capita and has some of the longest pediatric mental health wait times in the country.

  • State funding to dramatically expand the pediatric mental health workforce, including loan forgiveness for child therapists and psychiatrists in underserved areas, registered strong support, with 73% of voters supporting and just 11% opposing (+62 net support).

  • Support is strongest among Democrats (+79) and independents (+66), with Republicans net positive as well (+45).

  • Latino (+78) and Black (+70) voters are the most supportive, followed by white (+54) voters.

• Paid Family Leave: Texas is one of the few states with no paid family leave requirement, forcing new parents to choose between their job and being home with a newborn.

  • A state paid family leave program guaranteeing new parents a minimum number of weeks of paid leave, funded through a small payroll contribution, draws 72% support and 14% opposition (+58 net support).

  • Democrats (+72) and independents (+54) are the most supportive, with Republicans following closely behind (+49).

  • Latino (+70) voters show the strongest support, followed by Black (+59) and then white (+52) voters.

Education & Schools and Out-of-the-Box Proposals

Takeaways: Across demographic groups, Texans want to invest in their education system and schools. Reforming how Texas funds rural and low-income schools tested the strongest in this category and drew broad bipartisan support. Baby bonds, holding tech companies accountable, parenting stipend, and an extended school year option tested net positive as well.

• Rural and Low-Income Area School Funding: Because Texas school funding relies heavily on local property taxes, rural districts often bring in far less revenue than wealthier areas, creating major funding gaps that make it harder to hire teachers or offer programs.

  • Reforming how Texas distributes school funding to ensure low-income and rural districts get adequate resources draws 78% support and just 8% opposition (+70 net support).

  • Support crossed party lines, with Democrats being the most supportive (+77), followed by independents (+71) and Republicans (+62).

  • Latino (+78) voters are most supportive, with Black and white voters tied close behind (+66 each).

• Baby Bonds: Children born into wealthy families often receive financial safety nets that middle-class and lower-income families cannot provide. To address this disparity, several states are experimenting with state-funded savings accounts for every child at birth that grow until they turn 18.

  • A state savings account for every child born in Texas, seeded at birth and available at adulthood for education, a home purchase, or starting a business, registers strong support with two-thirds of voters (66%) supporting and 17% opposing (+49 net support).

  • Democrats and independents are equally supportive (+55 each), while Republicans follow closely behind (+38).

  • Across racial groups, Latino (+62) voters were the most supportive, followed by Black (+52) and white (+41) voters.

• Holding Tech Companies Accountable: Texas parents currently have little legal recourse when an app or platform harms their child.

  • A Texas law giving parents the right to sue social media and app companies for damages when their platforms cause physical or mental harm to a minor registers solid support (66%) with only 18% opposition (+48 net support).

  • Support is fairly consistent across the political spectrum with Democrats (+54), Republicans (+44), and independents (+44).

  • Support was highest among Latino voters (+48), followed by white (+47), and Black (+42) voters.

• A Texas Parenting Stipend: With the country’s birth rate at an all-time low, rising costs are leading many families to reconsider having children. Several countries provide a modest monthly payment to families with young kids, recognizing that raising children is labor that benefits society as a whole.

  • A monthly Texas family stipend for parents with children under five who earn under $75,000 a year, paid for through the state’s budget surplus, registered 56% supporting and 28% opposing it (+28 net support).

  • Democrats (+50) posted strong support while independents (+26) and Republicans (+10) were more tepid but still net positive.

  • The proposal was most strongly supported by Black voters (+57), followed by Latino (+47) and white voters (+14).

• Extended School Year Option: When the school year ends, many families lose their daily childcare and structure for their kids, which can cause students to fall behind academically.

  • Extending the school year, with state funding to cover the additional instructional costs, was the least popular policy tested in the entire poll, with less than half of voters supporting (49%) and 36% opposing (+13 net support).

  • Support remains consistent across party lines with Republicans (+14), independents (+13), and Democrats (+12).

  • Black voters (+25) were most supportive of the plank, followed by Latino (+23) and white voters (+10).

We hope you enjoyed our latest policy project installment focused on education, public schools, and parenting in Texas! Stay tuned for more of our findings from the policy project.

The survey of 1,048 likely Texas voters was conducted from July 15 to July 17, 2026 and has a margin of error of ±3.4 percentage points. The full topline is available here, and crosstabs are available upon request.

The takeaway: Democrat James Talarico (45%) leads Republican Ken Paxton (40%) by 5 points in the U.S. Senate race, a 2 point increase from TPOR’s post-runoff poll in May. Talarico continues to post strong margins with voters who self-identify as moderate (+34) and independent (+20).

Talarico’s lead is driven by a strong performance on affordability, which 44% of voters rank as their top priority in this election. Voters say Talarico better understands the economic challenges facing working Texans over Paxton by 7 points, and also trust Talarico to lower costs and improve Texans’ financial situations over Paxton by a 9-point margin. Renters and non-college voters trust Talarico on these issues by even wider margins.

In the Governor’s race, Greg Abbott leads Gina Hinojosa by 3 points (45% to 42%) with 10% still undecided. In the Attorney General’s race, Republican Mayes Middleton and Democrat Nathan Johnson are in a dead heat (39% to 38%) with 18% undecided.

Talarico holds the best statewide net favorability rating of any figure we tested (+12) while Paxton holds the worst (-13).

The Top Findings:

1. James Talarico (45%) leads Ken Paxton (40%) by 5 points in the race for U.S. Senate. Fourteen percent of voters remain undecided. Among those undecided voters pushed to choose today, 19% lean toward Paxton and 10% toward Talarico, with 5% leaning toward Libertarian Ted Brown. 66% of respondents are still unsure.

2. Black and Latino voters strongly favor Talarico, while white voters favor Paxton. Talarico leads among Black voters by a 63 point margin (71% to 8%) and among Latino voters by a 46 point margin (66% to 20%), while Paxton leads with white voters by a 20 point margin (53% to 33%).

3. Talarico leads with independents, but many are still undecided. Among independent voters in Texas, Talarico leads Paxton by a 20 point margin (43% to 23%). 29% of independents are still undecided.

4. More than half of moderates favor Talarico over Paxton. Among voters who describe themselves as politically moderate, Talarico leads 54% to 20%, with 23% still undecided. Among voters who identify as “somewhat conservative,” 65% intend to vote for Paxton while 19% plan to vote for Talarico. When asked which candidate is closer to their own political views, voters pick Talarico 41% to 37%. Talarico leads on this measure with moderates (47% to 18%) and independents (40% to 22%), and pulls 18% of somewhat conservative voters. 18% of voters describe Talarico as a “moderate” while 59% of voters view Paxton as very or somewhat conservative.

5. Affordability is top of mind for Texans. Forty-four percent of voters ranked affordability and the cost of living as a top-two priority for elected officials to prioritize in 2026, followed by health care access and costs (21%) and Social Security and Medicare (21%).

6. Talarico is more trusted on affordability. On the defining issue of affordability, voters give Talarico the edge over Paxton. Forty-two percent of voters say Talarico better understands the economic challenges facing working Texans, compared to 35% for Paxton (+7). Voters also trust Talarico more to lower costs and improve Texans’ financial situations, by 43% to 34% (+9).

7. Working-class voters trust Talarico the most on the economy. Renters trust Talarico over Paxton to lower costs and improve their financial situation by 23 points (48% to 25%), and by 22 points on understanding the economic challenges facing working Texans (46% to 24%). Voters without a college degree favor Talarico by 10 points on lowering costs (42% to 32%) and 13 points on understanding the economic challenges facing Texans (42% to 29%).

8. Paxton is now the most unpopular political figure tested. Paxton’s net favorability stands at -13 (33% favorable, 46% unfavorable). He trails Donald Trump (-3 net), Greg Abbott (+1 net), and even a generic “Republican candidate running for office” (+7 net) by wide margins. Talarico holds the highest net favorability rating of any figure tested, at +12 (43% favorable, 31% unfavorable). Notably, Gina Hinojosa is tied for the second-best net favorability at +7 (31% favorable, 24% unfavorable).

9. Greg Abbott continues to lead Democrat Gina Hinojosa in the Governor’s race. Greg Abbott leads Democrat Gina Hinojosa 45% to 42% with 10% undecided. Hinojosa leads with independents (+5), moderates (+18), Black voters (+49), and Latino voters (+38), while Abbott leads among college-educated voters (+9) and white voters (+29).

9. Republican Mayes Middleton leads Democrat Nathan Johnson by just 1 point in the Attorney General’s race. Republican Mayes Middleton leads Democrat Nathan Johnson 39% to 38%, with 18% of voters undecided. Johnson leads with independents (+8), moderates (+25), Black voters (+63), and Latino voters (+33), while Middleton leads among college-educated voters (+10) and white voters (+26).

Friday, July 24, 2026

Press Contact: caroline@slingshotstrat.com

**ADVISORY**

TUESDAY, JULY 28: TPOR to Release New Poll Texas General Election Poll, Including Paxton-Talarico Horserace

On Tuesday, July 28, Texas Public Opinion Research——a nonpartisan polling initiative dedicated to exploring Texans’ beliefs and priorities—will release the results of its latest Texas general election poll, including horserace numbers for the U.S. Senate, Gubernatorial, and Attorney General races.

Additionally, over the coming weeks, TPOR will share results and analysis from another wave of our policy project. Launched earlier this year, the project is focused on addressing the biggest questions facing Texans today, going directly to voters with real solutions and building a data-driven agenda from the ground up.

Our first round of policy polling covered the cost of living and the future of the “Texas Miracle” (including housing, healthcare, and economic success and shared prosperity), the political system and the “Spirit of Texas” (including social cohesion, money in politics, and government accountability and elections), and boys and men, social media and technology, mental health, and community and connection.

This wave looks at family, childcare, and education; immigration and the border; and AI, tech, data centers, and energy. A preview of the policies explored:

Family, Childcare, and Education

• Privatized Foster Care Accountability: Requiring private foster care companies to meet basic safety and care standards, and terminating contracts with companies that fail to comply.

• Universal Pre-K: Expanding access to publicly funded pre-K to all Texas 4-year-olds.

Immigration and the Border

• A Texas Immigration Court System: Advocating for a dedicated Texas federal immigration court system with sufficient resources to resolve cases in months rather than years, providing faster certainty for everyone involved.

• Cracking Down on Employers Who Exploit Undocumented Workers: Stronger state enforcement against Texas employers who knowingly exploit undocumented workers.

AI, Tech, Data Centers, and Energy

• Data Center Water Disclosure: Requiring large AI data centers to disclose their water consumption, locate away from overused aquifers, and contribute to water recycling or conservation projects to offset their impact on local water resources.

• AI Political Content Disclosure: A state law requiring political ads to disclose AI-generated or manipulated content of candidates.

This third installment covers policy proposals around boys and men, social media and technology, mental health, and community and connection.

The survey of 1,018 likely Texas voters was conducted from April 17 to April 20, 2026 and has a margin of error of ±3.3 percentage points. The full topline is available here, and crosstabs are available upon request.

Boys and Men

Takeaways: Texans across demographics support investment in vocational pathways for men and expanded targeted male mental health outreach.

• Vocational pathways for young men: Four-year college is not the right path for every Texan, but alternatives have been underfunded and stigmatized. Young men are disproportionately dropping out of both college and the workforce, with declining enrollment and workforce participation rates in recent years. The most popular proposal tested in this category would establish a major new state investment in vocational training, apprenticeships, and trade programs as fully valued alternatives to a four year degree.

  • More than two thirds of voters (77%) support creating the program, compared to 10% who oppose it (+67 net support).

  • Voters across party lines showed solid support with independents expressing the highest levels of support (+69), followed closely by Republicans (+66) and then Democrats (+62).

  • The proposal also resonated across racial groups, but was most supported by white voters (+72), followed by Black (+58) and Latino voters (+52).

• Men’s Mental Health Outreach: Men are significantly less likely to seek mental health treatment than women, and are more likely to die by suicide at nearly four times the rate. Outdated regulatory barriers like licensing blockers are making critical mental health services even harder to access for men. The least supported proposal in the poll would offer a Texas public health initiative specifically targeting men’s mental health by redesigning how programs engage with men and removing unnecessary licensing barriers that bar out of state providers from practicing within the state.

• A majority of voters (62%) support redesigning state mental health programs while just 16% oppose it (+46 net).

• The proposal was most strongly supported by Black voters (+53) followed by Latino voters (+46) and white voters (+43).

• The partisan breakdown saw the highest net support from Democrats (+52) and independents (+42), followed by Republicans (+40).

Social Media and Technology

Takeaways: The social media and technology planks drew strong support from Texas voters. Creating social media age restrictions drew the most support in the category, followed by the banning of algorithmic targeting of minors.

• Social media age restrictions: U.S. Surgeon General Vivek Murthy called loneliness a national epidemic. Studies show young people aged 15-24 have seen a 70% reduction in social interaction over the past two decades, driven in part by social media. This plank would require social media companies to verify users’ ages and obtain parental consent before allowing children under 16 to create accounts.

  • An overwhelming majority of Texas voters (80%) support creating such a requirement, compared to 13% who oppose it (+67 net support).

  • Support was strongest among White voters (+74) and Latino voters (+59), while Black voters’ support was comparatively weaker, but still substantial (+49).

  • Support was solid across party lines, with independents (+71), Republicans (+70), and Democrats (+60) all in favor.

• Banning algorithmic targeting of minors: Social media platforms use algorithms designed to keep kids glued to their screens, serving increasingly extreme or emotionally manipulative content. Companies also use personal data and behavioral tracking to charge different consumers different prices. This proposal would ban both practices for minors, prohibiting algorithmic targeting and limiting “dynamic pricing” based on personal data.

• Seven in ten voters (70%) support banning algorithmic targeting of minors while 18% oppose it.

• White voters (+61) were the most supportive of the plank followed by Latino voters (+43) and Black voters (+26).

• Across parties, support was strongest among independents (+64), followed by Republicans (+56) and Democrats (+41).

Mental Health

Takeaways: Every mental health policy proposal in this poll received strong support from Texans. Investing in community mental health infrastructure drew the strongest support, followed by empowering the state to penalize insurance companies and establishing a requirement for schools to have at least one mental health counselor.

• Community Mental Health Infrastructure: Texas ranks near the bottom nationally in mental health resources per capita. As a result, many people do not receive care until they come into contact with the criminal justice system, highlighting the need for expanded access to community-based mental health services. The most popular proposal tested in the poll would use existing state surplus revenue to establish walk-in clinics in every county.

  • The program earns overwhelming support with 79% of voters registering support for expanding community mental health infrastructure while just 9% oppose the measure (+70).

  • Equal shares of White (+70) and Latino (+70) voters support the plank followed by Black voters (+67).

  • Support for the program was highest among Democrats (+76), followed by independents (+68) and Republicans (+65).

• School-based mental health counselors: Many Texas schools have no mental health counselors, or one for every 500+ students. Creating a state requirement that every Texas public school have at least one mental health counselor, funded by the state rather than local school districts drew solid support.

• A large majority of voters (78%) report support for a state requirement that expands school mental health services while 10% of voters oppose it (+68).

• Support for this policy proposal was highest among Democrats (+75), independents (+71), and Republicans (+61). Black (+73) and Latino (+70) voters posted the strongest net support, followed by white voters.

• Mental health parity enforcement: Texas law technically requires insurers to cover mental health like physical health, but most of these companies do not comply. This proposal suggests giving the state real enforcement power to penalize insurance companies that deny or underfund mental health coverage.

  • Giving states the power to penalize insurance companies received 72% support from voters in Texas, while just 13% opposed the plank (+59).

  • Support was solid across party lines, with independents (+66), Republicans (+57), and Democrats (+57) all firmly in favor

  • Support was strongest among white voters (+67), followed by Latino (+52) and Black (+47) voters.

Community and Connection

Takeaways: Proposals focused on community and connection drew solid support across demographic groups. Investing in community gathering spaces and creating a state grant program tied to a wellbeing index both polled well.

• Investment in community gathering spaces: Rural and suburban Texas communities are losing the gathering places — libraries, community centers, parks — that used to hold them together. These key heritage spaces, which are a critical bridge between lifelong Texans, and newer Texans, deserve to be preserved. This policy plank suggests building and maintaining community centers and public spaces in underserved urban and suburban Texas communities, paid for through the state’s budget surplus.

  • Seventy percent of respondents support Texas investing in community spaces, while just 17% oppose (+53).

  • Voters across party lines register solid support with Democrats expressing the highest levels of net support (+62), followed by independents (+56) and then Republicans (+46).

• Community wellbeing and social infrastructure: While Texas closely tracks economic indicators like jobs and GDP, it does not measure how residents are doing in their daily lives. Meanwhile, many communities have lost “third places” —spaces beyond home and work that foster connection and belonging. Expanding these spaces and developing a statewide wellbeing index could help communities better understand and improve quality of life. This proposal would create a state grant program that uses a Texas wellbeing index to guide funding for community gathering spaces—such as recreation centers, community cafes, and other local hubs—as public infrastructure.

  • More than half of voters (64%) support creating such a program compared to 16% that oppose (+48).

  • The proposal was more strongly supported by Black (+51) and Latino (+51) voters than White voters (+45).

  • The partisan breakdown saw the highest net support from Democrats (+60) and independents (+49), followed by Republicans (+37).

We hope you enjoyed our third installment of the policy project, stay tuned for more of our findings!

This week, we’re breaking down the data on a key section of the electorate: voters who self-identify as moderates and independents. We’ll dig into what’s driving this group—their priorities, which candidates are earning their support, and what all of this means for the upcoming election in November.

The survey of 1,670 likely voters was conducted from May 27 to May 28, 2026, and has a margin of error of ±2.8 percentage points. The full topline is available here, and crosstabs are available upon request.

Takeaways:

• Across key races, moderates and independents are breaking decisively toward Democrats across the board. James Talarico is leading Ken Paxton by a 57 point margin among voters who self-identify as moderate and by 43 points among self-identified independents in the U.S. Senate race.

• Of voters who backed Cornyn in the Republican runoff, only 44% say they now plan to vote for Paxton in the general election, while 30% intend to vote for Talarico. 23% are undecided or would not vote in the race.

• Democrat Gina Hinojosa leads Republican Greg Abbot by 38 points among moderates and 27 points among independents. Similarly, Democrat Nathan Johnson leads Republican Mayes Middleton by 38 points among moderates and 21 points among independents.

• Among both moderates (-67) and independents (-54), Ken Paxton holds the lowest net favorability.

• A majority of moderates (53%) and the largest share of independents (70%) say Trump’s endorsement of Paxton had little to no influence on their runoff decision.

• Undecided voters, both moderate and independent, lean towards Talarico. For undecided moderate voters, 30% would lean Talarico vs. 4% for Paxton, while among undecided independent voters, 25% would lean Talarico vs. 5% for Paxton.

Cornyn v. Paxton Voters

Among voters who supported John Cornyn in the Republican runoff, only 44% say that they now plan to vote for Ken Paxton in the general election, while nearly a third (30%) say they would vote for James Talarico and 23% are undecided or would not vote in the race.

Favorability: Moderate Voters

Among self-identified moderate voters, James Talarico leads all tested figures in net favorability (+57), followed by a generic Democratic candidate running for office (+45) and Gina Hinojosa (+39). Democrats in the Texas State Legislature (+39) and The Democratic Party (+26) also enjoyed strong favorability ratings.

Among these same voters, several figures registered strong negative net favorability ratings. John Cornyn (-21), Marco Rubio (-34) and a generic Republican candidate running for office (-34) are all underwater with moderate Texans, followed by Republicans in the Texas State Legislature (-41), The Republican Party (-47), Greg Abbott (-49), and J.D. Vance (-50). Dan Patrick (-53), Donald Trump (-54) and Elon Musk (-54) had some of the lowest net favorability ratings, while Ken Paxton (-67) recorded the worst net favorability of any figure tested.

Favorability: Independent Voters

Among self-identified independent voters, James Talarico leads all tested figures in net favorability (+42), followed by Gina Hinojosa (+30) and a generic Democratic candidate running for office (+23). Democrats in the Texas State Legislature (+16) and The Democratic Party (+1) round out the positive end of the spectrum.

Marco Rubio (-21), A republican candidate running for office (-30), John Cornyn (-31), and Republicans in the Texas State Legislature (-38) all register negative favorability among independent voters, while Elon Musk (-40), J.D. Vance (-45), Greg Abbott (-45), and Dan Patrick (-45) follow closely behind. The Republican Party (-48), Donald Trump (-51), and Ken Paxton (-54) hold the lowest net favorability ratings of all figures tested.

Issues and Priorities: Moderates & Independents

When asked which issues they thought their elected officials should prioritize in 2026, both voters who self-identify as moderate (34%) and independents (29%) ranked affordability and cost of living as their top choice by a wide margin. Among moderate voters, healthcare access and costs (13%) and democracy and voting rights (9%) rounded out the top three, tied with education and public schools (9%). For independent voters, democracy and voting rights (11%) and economic growth and job creation (8%) followed closely behind. For both groups, public safety (0% moderate, 2% independents), abortion and reproductive health issues (1%), and don’t know/other (1%) ranked as the lowest priorities.

An overwhelming majority of voters who self-identify as moderate (77%) voted in the Republican runoff for the U.S. Senate on May 26th, while 23% did not vote. Among moderate voters who voted in the runoff election, John Cornyn held a 28 point lead, with 64% reporting voting for him compared to 36% who reported voting for Ken Paxton.

40% of moderate voters said Donald Trump’s endorsement of Ken Paxton influenced their vote in the runoff election (26% say it influenced their vote a great deal, while 14% say it had some influence). A larger share of voters (59%) say that the endorsement from Trump did not necessarily influence their decision (10% say an endorsement had not much influence on their decision, while 49% say it had no influence on their decision at all.)

Senate Horserace: Moderate Voters

Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton by 57 points among moderate voters, with 72% saying they would vote for him compared to just 15% for Paxton. Ten percent remain undecided.

Among undecided voters who identify as moderate, a majority (56%) cited uncertainty about which candidate they would lean towards if the general election were held today. Thirty percent of this group would lean towards James Talarico while just 4% would lean towards Ken Paxton.

Moderate Political Perception

When asked which candidate is closer to their own political views, a majority of moderate voters picked James Talarico (64%), compared to 13% who picked Ken Paxton and 15% who picked neither.

The largest share of moderate voters (45%) would describe Ken Paxton’s overall approach to politics as “very conservative,” followed by “moderate” (14%), and “somewhat conservative” (11%).

When asked to describe James Talarico’s overall approach to politics, a majority of moderate voters (53%) would describe the approach as “moderate,” followed by “somewhat liberal” (19%), “unsure” of how to describe it (15%), and “very liberal” 9%.

Gubernatorial Horserace: Moderate Voters

Among likely voters who self-identify as moderate, Democrat Gina Hinojosa holds a 38 point lead in the governor’s race, with 59% reporting voting for her compared to 21% who plan on voting for Republican Greg Abbott. Sixteen percent of moderate voters remain undecided.

Attorney General Horserace: Moderate Voters

A majority of moderate voters (55%) plan on voting for Democrat Nathan Johnson while 18% plan on voting for Republican Mayes Middleton. Almost a quarter of moderate voters (23%) remain undecided on who they would vote for the general election for Attorney General of Texas.

Senate Horserace: Independent Voters

An overwhelming majority of independent voters (73%) did not vote in the Republican runoff for the U.S. Senate on May 26th, while 27% did. Of independents who voted in the runoff, 54% reported voting for Paxton while 46% reported voting for John Cornyn.

29% of independent voters said Donald Trump’s endorsement of Ken Paxton influenced their vote in the runoff election (16% say it influenced their vote a great deal, while 13% say it had some influence). A plurality of independent voters (48%) say that endorsement from Trump had no influence at all on their decision, while 22% say it had not much influence on their decision.

If the 2026 general election for US Senate in Texas were held today, a solid majority of independent voters (64%) would vote for James Talarico. Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton by 43 points, with 21% reporting they would vote for Paxton. Eleven percent of independent voters remain undecided.

A quarter of undecided independent voters would lean towards James Talarico while just 5% would lean towards Ken Paxton. Among undecided independent voters, a plurality (45%) cited uncertainty about which candidate they would lead towards if the runoff were held today.

Independent Political Perception

When asked which candidate is closer to their own political views, a majority of independent voters picked James Talarico (57%), compared to 19% who picked Ken Paxton and 19% who picked neither.

The largest share of independent voters (56%) would describe Ken Paxton’s overall approach to politics as “very conservative,” followed by “somewhat conservative” (17%) and being unsure how to describe his approach (17%).

When asked to describe James Talarico’s overall approach to politics, a plurality (36%) would describe the approach as “moderate,” followed by “very liberal” (25%), and “somewhat liberal” (24%).

Gubernatorial Horserace: Independent Voters

Among independent voters, Democrat Gina Hinojosa holds a 27 point lead in the governor’s race, with 51% reporting voting for her compared to 24% who plan on voting for Republican Greg Abbott. Eighteen percent of independent voters remain undecided.

Attorney General Horserace: Independent Voters

A plurality of independent voters (43%) plan on voting for Nathan Johnson if the general election for Attorney General of Texas were held today. Roughly a quarter (26%) of voters remain undecided, while 22% report voting for Mayes Middleton.

As the general election approaches, moderates and independents will play a large role in shaping the narrative. Stay tuned as we continue to keep track of these shifts as they develop!

This second installment covers policy proposals around the spirit of Texas and the broken political system, specifically focusing on social cohesion, money in politics, and government affordability and elections.

The survey of 1,018 likely Texas voters was conducted from April 17 to April 20, 2026 and has a margin of error of ±3.3 percentage points. The full topline is available here, and crosstabs are available upon request.

Social Cohesion and Identity

Takeaways: Across party lines, Texans want to invest in stronger social cohesion and connection to the state. Creating a state service corp and investing in civic education both drew strong support from voters.

• Investing in civic education: Texas students are not required to take a meaningful civics course before graduating high school, leaving many without a shared understanding of how the government works or what it means to be a citizen. The most popular proposal tested would establish a graduation requirement, mandating students to enroll in a rigorous civic course covering local and state government, not just the federal system.

  • 75% of Texas voters support creating such a requirement, compared to 14% who oppose it (+61 net support).

  • Voters across party lines showed solid support with Republicans expressing the highest levels of enthusiasm (+68), followed closely by independents (+64) and then Democrats (+52).

• Texas Service Corps: Some states and countries have created paid civic service programs where young people spend a year working in their community in exchange for a working stipend or government benefits. Successful service corps models have offered options like student loan forgiveness, childcare assistance, and food stamp access. This proposal would offer a modest stipend and basic benefits during service, along with assistance for a first-time in-state home purchase.

  • This program is the second most popular policy tested, with 73% of Texans supporting it and 13% opposing (+60).

  • The proposal was most strongly supported by Black voters (+67) followed by White or Latino voters (+61).

  • The partisan breakdown saw the highest net support from Democrats (+69) and Independents (+66), followed by Republicans (+49).

Money in Politics

Takeaways: The full series of “money in politics” planks drew strong support from a broad swath of Texas voters. Reforming legislator pay drew the most support, followed by limiting campaign contributions and creating a full time legislature.

• Reforming Legislator Pay: Texas legislators are currently paid a base salary of only $7,200 a year, a rate that has remained frozen for half a century. This low pay effectively restricts public office to those who are already wealthy or have high-paying flexible jobs, excluding middle-class and working Texans from serving.
  
  To ensure a more representative and professional legislature, Texas could “peg” legislative salaries to a fixed percentage of a State District Judge’s salary to raise the base salaries of legislators across the state.
  
  

  • Two-thirds of voters (66%) support raising legislative base salaries to ensure that everyday Texans, not just the wealthy, can afford to serve in the state legislature.

  • Support was consistent across party lines, with independents (+56), Republicans (+50), and Democrats (+46) all in favor.

• Campaign contribution limits: Texas has no limits on how much an individual, corporation, or PAC can donate to a state political campaign - this includes to candidates for Governor, State Legislators, and Attorney General. A single donor can write a multi-million dollar check to a candidate and we’ve seen it happen in every cycle.

  • Limiting how much any single donor – individual or corporation – can contribute drew support from 63% of voters.

  • Support was strongest among independents (+48) and Democrats (+46), while Republican support was comparatively weaker, but still substantial (+38).

• Creating a Full Time Legislature: Texas is the only one of the nation’s four largest states without a full-time legislature. Currently, the 140-day, odd-year only, limit forces “marathon” sessions where critical bills are rushed with little oversight, while urgent state issues must wait up to two years for a response. A professional, full-time legislature would meet annually to provide year-round oversight of state agencies and a faster response to the needs of a rapidly growing state.

  • Sixty percent of Texas voters supported a constitutional amendment to make the Legislature full-time, require annual sessions, and prohibit legislators from holding outside jobs while in office.

Support crossed party lines, ranging from +34 among independents to +50 among Democrats.

Government Accountability and Elections

Takeaways: All government accountability and election policies received solid support. Independent redistricting drew the strongest support followed by restoring local control, and implementing a National Popular Vote.

• Independent redistricting: Texas legislators draw their own district maps, which critics say allows them to pick their voters rather than the other way around. Texas voters agree.

  • Creating an independent redistricting commission made up of ordinary Texans– not politicians or lobbyists– to draw legislative district maps received 64% support, while only 16% oppose it (+48 net support).

  • White voters (+53) were the most supportive of this plank followed by Latino (+41) and Black (+36) voters.

  • Support was strong across party lines, with Democrats (+52) and independents (+56) leading, followed by Republicans (+41).

• Restoring Local Control: The Texas Legislature has repeatedly passed laws overriding cities and counties on key workplace issues like minimum wage and paid sick leave.

  • A majority of Texans, 54%, support creating localized floor standards for wages and benefits to limit the state’s ability to override local city and county decisions on economic and workplace issues that don’t cross jurisdiction lines, compared to just 19% who oppose it (+35).

  • Support was highest among Latino voters (+45), followed by Black voters (+37) and White voters (+32).

• National Popular Vote: Presidential candidates currently focus almost entirely on a handful of swing states, ignoring Texas voters because the outcome here is seen as predetermined.

  • 55% of respondents supported Texas joining a multistate agreement that would make every Texan’s vote for president count equally, regardless of which party wins the state, while just 22% were opposed (+33 net support).

  • Support was highest among Latino (+38), White (+32), and Black voters (+29). Democrats (+48) and independents (+40) posted strong support, while Republicans (+19) were more tepid but still net positive

We hope you enjoyed our second policy project installment focused on the spirit of Texas and reforming our broken political system. Stay tuned for more of our findings!

The survey of 1,670 likely voters was conducted from May 27 to May 28, 2026, and has a margin of error of ±2.8 percentage points. The full topline is available here, and crosstabs are available upon request.

The takeaway: Democrat James Talarico leads Ken Paxton 47% to 44% in the U.S. Senate general election, powered by commanding margins with moderates and independents.

Crucially, among Cornyn runoff voters, nearly a third (30%) say that they would vote for Talarico, while 44% would vote for Paxton—23% remain undecided or say that they will not vote. More than half of GOP runoff voters who now plan to support Talarico cite Paxton’s criminality or corruption as their primary reason.

The Top Findings:

1. James Talarico (47%) leads Ken Paxton (44%) by 3 points in the race for U.S. Senate. Seven percent of voters remain undecided. Among those undecided voters pushed to choose today, 19% lean toward Paxton and 17% toward Talarico with 13% leaning toward Libertarian Ted Brown and 50% still not sure.

2. Almost a third of Cornyn runoff voters say that they would vote for Talarico over Paxton in November. Among voters who supported John Cornyn in the Republican Senate runoff, only 44% say that they now plan to vote for Ken Paxton in the general election. 30% say they would vote for Talarico and 23% are either undecided or would not vote in the race.

3. Black voters opt for Talarico, white and Latino voters are split.Talarico leads Paxton with Black voters by a 38-point margin (64% to 26%). When it comes to Latino voters however, the race is currently within the margin of error—42% say they would support Talarico, while 46% say they would support Paxton. 10% of Latino voters are still undecided. Among white voters, the race is a dead heat. 46% say they plan to vote for Paxton compared to 45% for Talarico.

4. Moderate voters in Texas break decisively for Talarico. Talarico leads Paxton among voters who identify as moderate by a 57-point margin (72% to 15%). Among voters who identify as “somewhat conservative” 66% intend to vote for Paxton while 18% plan to vote for Talarico. When asked which candidate is closer to their own political views, voters pick Talarico 43% to 41%. Talarico leads on this measure with moderates (64% to 13%) and independents (57% to 19%), and pulls 11% of somewhat conservative voters. 24% of voters describe Talarico as a “moderate” while 75% of voters view Paxton as very or somewhat conservative.

5. Talarico leads Paxton by 43 points with independents. Among independent voters in Texas, Talarico leads Paxton 64% to 21% with 11% undecided.

6. Affordability and cost of living ranks as the top issue voters want elected officials to prioritize, and they trust Talarico to help. With 23% of voters citing it as their first priority, more than double any other issue, affordability is the defining concern in the state. Voters say Talarico better understands the economic challenges facing working Texans than Paxton (45% to 40%), and that he will do more to lower costs and improve the financial situation of everyday Texans than Paxton (44% to 40%).

7. The educational divide is one of the sharpest splits in the race. Talarico leads college-educated voters by 30 points while Paxton holds a 21-point advantage among non-college voters in Texas.

8. Paxton is the second most unpopular major political figure tested… after John Cornyn. Paxton’s net favorability stands at -19 (38% favorable, 57% unfavorable). He trails Donald Trump (-3 net), Greg Abbott (-6 net), and even a generic “Republican candidate running for office” (+6 net) by wide margins. Talarico holds the second highest net favorability rating of all figures tested at net +7 (47% favorable, 40% unfavorable). Notably, Gina Hinojosa leads all figures tested at +16 net favorability, though 38% of voters remain unfamiliar with her.

9. For Talarico-supporting GOP runoff voters, this race is a referendum on Ken Paxton’s character. When asked in their own words why they are supporting Talarico over Paxton, more than half (51%) of GOP runoff voters who now plan to support Talarico cite Paxton’s criminality or corruption as their primary reason., while an additional 13% point to his personal moral failures. Only 10% give a positive reason for supporting Talarico. Another 10% describe themselves as reluctant voters — supporting Talarico not out of enthusiasm but because they see no acceptable alternative. 7% cite Paxton’s alignment with Donald Trump, and 5% express broader disillusionment with the Republican Party.

10. Greg Abbott leads Gina Hinojosa by 5 points in the Governor’s race. Greg Abbott leads Democrat Gina Hinojosa 46% to 41% with 9% undecided. Hinojosa leads with independents (+27), moderates (+38), college-educated voters (+16) and Black voters (+32). Abbott holds a slim lead among Latino voters (+2).

11. Mayes Middleton leads Nathan Johnson by 5 points in the Attorney General’s race. Republican Mayes Middleton leads Democrat Nathan Johnson 44% to 39%, with 13% still undecided. Johnson leads with independents (+21), moderates (+37), and college-educated voters (+16).

Wednesday, May 27, 2026

Press Contact: caroline@slingshotstrat.com

**ADVISORY**

FRIDAY, MAY 29: TPOR to Release Post-Republican Runoff Poll on Paxton-Talarico General Election Matchup

On Friday, May 29, Texas Public Opinion Research (TPOR)—a nonpartisan polling initiative dedicated to exploring Texans’ beliefs and priorities—will release the results of a poll conducted in the immediate wake of Attorney General Ken Paxton’s defeat of US Sen. John Cornyn in Tuesday’s Republican runoff election.

With the general election matchup now confirmed as Paxton versus James Talarico, the snap poll of 800 Texas voters explores:

• The post-runoff horserace numbers between Paxton and Talarico;

• How much President Trump’s endorsement of Paxton influenced Republican Senate runoff voters;

• How enthusiastic Republican Senate runoff voters—both those who voted for Paxton and those who voted for Cornyn—are about Paxton;

• How many Republican runoff voters are undecided about the general election or planning to vote for Talarico;

• Voter views of Paxton and Talarico on key issues.

The survey of 1,865 likely general election voters, including 392 Latino voters, was conducted from April 17 to April 20, 2026, and has a margin of error of ±2.5 percentage points. The full topline is available here, and crosstabs are available upon request.

Key Takeaways:

• Talarico leads Cornyn by 32 points among Latino voters (57% to 25%) — and that margin holds even if Ken Paxton is the Republican nominee, with Talarico leading Paxton 57% to 30%.

• Gina Hinojosa leads Greg Abbott by 22 points among Latino voters (56% to 34%).

• Pocketbook issues dominate — affordability and cost of living ranked first among issue priorities, reflecting broader economic anxieties heading into November.

• John Cornyn registers the lowest net favorability of any figure tested among Latino voters (-27).

Ideological Disposition:

When asked how they would describe themselves politically, Latino voters skewed moderate. The largest share (36%) identified as moderate, while conservatives made up nearly a third of the group, with 18% identifying as somewhat conservative and 13% identifying as very conservative.

Liberals accounted for 27% of Latino voters,14% say they are very liberal, while 13% identify as somewhat liberal. 6% of Latino Texans report being unsure of how to describe themselves politically.

Favorability

Among Latino voters, James Talarico has the highest net favorability of the figures and organizations tested (+27), followed by Gina Hinojosa (+23) and a generic Democratic candidate running for office (+21). The Democratic Party (+15) and democrats in the Texas Legislature (+15) also enjoyed positive favorability ratings.

Several figures registered negative net favorability ratings among Latino voters. Vikki Goodwin (-1), Mike Collier (-2), and Ken Paxton (-13) sit in mildly to moderately negative territory, while a generic Republican candidate (-18), Dan Patrick (-19), Republicans in the Texas Legislature (-19), the Republican Party (-20), and Greg Abbott (-22) follow behind. Donald Trump (-23), JD Vance (-23), Elon Musk (-24), and John Cornyn (-27) rounded out the bottom of the list.

Issue Priority

When asked which issues they thought their elected officials should prioritize in 2026, Latino voters ranked affordability and cost of living as their top choice (23%). Healthcare access and immigration rounded out the top three issues among Latino Texans. Equal shares of respondents cited economic growth (8%) and social security and Medicare (8%) as a top priority. Climate change and the environment (1%) and regulating artificial intelligence (1%) ranked as the lowest priorities.

Texas Gubernatorial General Election

Among Latino voters, Democrat Gina Hinojosa leads Republican Greg Abbott by a commanding 22-point margin, with 56% planning to vote for Hinojosa compared to 34% for Abbott. 9% of voters remain undecided, and 1% say they would not vote in the race.

Texas Attorney General General Election

Among Latino voters, the prospective Democratic nominee for Attorney General leads their Republican counterpart by a 22-point margin, with 52% planning to vote for the Democrat compared to 30% for the Republican. Notably, 16% of voters remain undecided in this race, the highest undecided share of any contest tested, and 2% say they would not vote.

Texas Senate General Election

Democrat James Talarico holds a commanding 32-point lead over John Cornyn among Latino voters, with 57% reporting they plan to vote for Talarico compared to just a quarter (25%) who plan on voting for Cornyn. 14% remain undecided, while 4% report they would not vote in that race.

If Ken Paxton were chosen as the Republican nominee, Talarico’s lead shrinks from 32 to 27 points (57% to 30%) among Latino voters, compared to just 25% who said they would vote for Cornyn over Talarico. The share of undecided voters decreases from 14% to 10%, while 2% say they would not vote in this race.

We hope you enjoyed this breakdown of where Latino voters stand heading into November. As one of the most influential voting blocs of the Lone Star State, their priorities and preferences will play a significant role in the upcoming election.

Stay tuned for more cutting edge data and analysis as the general election unfolds.

This first installment covers policy proposals around cost of living and the future of the “Texas Miracle,” focusing on housing, healthcare, and economic success and shared prosperity.

The survey of 1,018 likely Texas voters was conducted from April 17 to April 20, 2026 and has a margin of error of ±3.3 percentage points. The full topline is available here, and crosstabs are available upon request.

Housing

Takeaways: Texans across party lines support several policies aimed at lowering housing costs and increasing housing supply. A proposal to protect workers at active worksites from deportation to help reduce labor shortages and project delays drew net positive support overall, but opinions split along partisan lines.

• Faster, lower-cost housing for rural Texas: Rural Texas has the space and the workforce to build the homes the state desperately needs. The most popular proposal tested would establish manufacturing hubs in rural communities to build prefab and 3-D printed homes, creating local jobs while producing the housing supply needed to bring down prices statewide. 75% of Texas voters support the policy, compared with 11% that oppose it (+64 net support). Republicans (76%) and Democrats (75%) support the policy in equal shares.

• Housing Cost Relief Fund: There is broad support for a dedicated Housing Cost Relief fund that invests $10 billion over the next 10 years to support the lowest-income households through expanded rental assistance and the development of affordable housing. Financed in part by a tax on high-value property, such as homes worth over $5 million, this proposal would ensure that those with the most expensive real estate contribute to addressing the housing crisis facing the state’s working families.

The fund is the second-most popular housing proposal, with 66% supporting it and 23% opposed (+43 net support). The policy receives overwhelming support among Democrats (83%) and majority support among Republicans (54%) and independents (50%). Three-quarters of both Black and Latino voters support the policy, as do three-fifths of both white and Asian voters.

• Land Value Tax: Texas cities tax land and buildings at the same rate — meaning a vacant lot in a booming neighborhood is treated the same as an apartment complex that houses dozens of families. Shifting the tax burden onto land rather than structures would make it costly to sit on undeveloped property and would reward those who build, discouraging speculation and encouraging the faster housing development Texas desperately needs. Voters show solid support for this change in how Texas cities calculate property taxes (+31 net support).

• Keeping the “Texas Miracle” Alive: For decades, people flocked to Texas because it was the land of opportunity and affordable living. But today, the state is short 320,000 homes, and median prices have surged nearly 40% in just five years. Local city councils are “zoning out” the next generation of Texans. To keep our economy booming, we must stop cities from blocking affordable, common-sense housing like smaller single-family homes and duplexes in our neighborhoods. Voters show solid support for this policy (+26 net support).

• Securing the construction labor force: Texas faces a massive shortage of skilled construction workers, with a majority of tradesworkers being foreign-born. Heightened immigration enforcement and deportation efforts lead to labor shortages and construction delays and drives up the cost of building new homes. To stabilize home prices, Texas must ensure that the workers are not stripped from their job sites. A plurality of Texans, 48%, support designated active worksites and housing construction sites as zones where workers are protected from deportation while employed there, compared with 40% who oppose it (+8 net support). There is a clear partisan divide: 79% of Democrats support the policy while 39% of Republicans do, and a majority of independents (58%) support it. Support is strongest among Latino (69%) and Black (67%) voters.

Healthcare Takeaways: All healthcare policy planks tested strongly among likely voters. The state generic drug program drew the strongest support, followed by hospital price transparency and Medicaid expansion.

• Hospital price transparency and anti-surprise billing: Texans regularly receive surprise medical bills and have no way to compare hospital prices before they get care. Setting standard or capped prices for common medical procedures so patients are not charged widely different amounts for the same care draws overwhelming support. 84% of voters back it while just 9% oppose it (+75 net support). Support is consistent across party lines: Democrats (87%), Republicans (81%), and independents (84%).

• Prescription drug pricing board: Texans pay among the highest prescription drug prices in the country, with no state mechanism to negotiate lower costs. 76% of voters support a state program where Texas contracts directly with manufacturers to produce its own “Texas Label” generic prescription drugs, providing a lower-cost alternative to expensive brand-name medications; only 12% oppose it. 77% of Republicans, 74% of Democrats, and 75% of independents support it.

• Medicaid expansion: Texas is the only large state that hasn’t expanded Medicaid. Over 1 million uninsured Texans, mostly working adults, earn too much to qualify for Medicaid but too little to afford private insurance. Accepting federal funds to expand Medicaid coverage, with the federal government covering 90 cents of every dollar (with no net cost to state taxpayers), receives 70% support, while only 20% oppose (+50 net support). Support is particularly high among Democrats (77%) and independents (755), nearly two-thirds (63%) of Republicans support it as well.

Economic Success and Shared Prosperity Policy

Takeaway: Economic fairness proposals drew strong support among race and party demographics. Fixing the agricultural supply chain and the resulting food insecurity tested the highest across the entire poll, followed by closing corporate taxes, reforming the tax structure, and cutting property taxes.

• Agricultural supply chains and food insecurity: Despite being a top agricultural producer, Texas has some of the highest food insecurity rates in the country. Currently, millions of pounds of fresh produce and protein go to waste because farmers cannot afford the labor and packaging costs to donate them. A state program that directly compensates farmers and food banks to distribute surplus local crops and meat to local families instead of letting it go to waste drew the highest support of any policy tested (net +79). This includes overwhelming majorities of Democrats (87%), Republicans (85%), and independents (87%).

• Closing corporate tax loopholes: Many large companies operating in Texas use legal structures to minimize the taxes they pay into the state, while small businesses can’t access the same workarounds. More than two-thirds of voters (77%) support closing corporate tax loopholes used by large multinationals to reduce the burden on Texas small businesses, while just 12% oppose it (+65 net support). This includes 86% of Democrats, 77% of Republicans, and 78% of independents.

• Taxing speculative wealth, not work: Texas currently has no income tax, which results in working-class Texans paying some of the highest property and sales taxes in the country. This hits sitting middle and lower-class families the hardest. Three-quarters of Texans (74%) support restructuring the tax system to ensure that speculative investment income and high-value real estate transactions carry a heavier burden, allowing property and sales taxes on working families to be reduced. Just 13% oppose it (net +61support). 79% of Democrats support the policy, as do 72% of Republicans and 70% of independents.

• A Texas State Income Tax: Texas ranks as one of the top-most “unfair” states for taxpayers in the country, with property taxes providing nearly half of all state and local government revenue. Wealthier Texans pay taxes only on their in-state property rather than on their income, investments, or out-of-state holdings, resulting in a much lower effective tax share. Cutting property taxes for working- and middle-class Texans, funded by a new state income tax on households earning more than $3 million a year, receives 70% support, while 18% oppose (net +52). Support is particularly high among Democrats (77%), with two-thirds of both independent and Republicans backing it as well.

• Reimbursing local communities: Texas is proud of its high population of veterans. In areas where veterans make up a majority of residents, we have a property tax exemption which has, in some cases, resulted in a gap in local tax revenue. To shift the burden of the lost revenue off of Texan families, Rep. Vince Perez sponsored legislation that required the state government to offer cash assistance to these areas. 64% of Texans support the expansion of this program, while just 15% oppose it (net +49 support). 68% of Democrats support the policy, as do roughly two thirds of Republicans (66%) and independents. Latino (70%), Black (66%), and white (66%) voters support the policy in higher shares than Asian voters (49%).

We hope you enjoyed our first policy project installment focused on housing, healthcare, and the cost of living! Stay tuned for more of our findings from the policy project!

The survey of 1,865 likely general election voters was conducted from April 17 to April 20, 2026, and has a margin of error of ±2.5 percentage points. The full topline is available here, and crosstabs are available upon request.

The takeaway: Moderate and independent voters favor Democratic candidates like James Talarico and Gina Hinojosa over Republican candidates in key elections. Both groups of voters prioritize affordability and cost of living above all other issues.

Moderate Favorability

Among likely moderate voters, James Talarico has the highest net favorability among the figures tested (+41), followed by a generic Democratic Candidate Running for Office (+35) and Gina Hinojosa (+31). Democrats in the Texas Legislature (+27) and the Democratic Party (+27) also enjoy positive favorability among this group, while Nathan Johnson (+4) and Joe Jaworski (+4) register modestly positive ratings.

Sentiment turns negative toward a generic Republican Candidate Running for Office (-27), John Cornyn (-33), and Republicans in the Texas Legislature (-35). The Republican Party (-37) and Greg Abbott (-37) follow closely behind, with Elon Musk (-39), Ken Paxton (-42), and Donald Trump (-43) registering the lowest net favorability ratings of the figures tested.

Independent Favorability

Among likely independent voters, James Talarico leads all tested figures in net favorability (+20), followed by Gina Hinojosa (+19) and a generic Democratic candidate running for office (+5). Nathan Johnson (+3) and Joe Jaworski (+3) round out the positive end of the spectrum.

Sentiment turns negative toward Democrats in the Texas Legislature (-4), a Republican candidate running for office (-12), and the Democratic Party (-14). Donald Trump (-23), Elon Musk (-23), Greg Abbott (-24), Republicans in the Texas Legislature (-24), and the Republican Party (-25) all register moderately negative favorability among independents. Ken Paxton (-30) and John Cornyn (-33) hold the lowest net favorability ratings of all figures tested.

Issue Priority

When asked which issues they thought their elected officials should prioritize in 2026, both moderates (24%) and independents (23%) ranked affordability and cost of living as their top choice. Among moderate voters, healthcare access and costs (12%) and economic growth and job creation (10%) rounded out the top three. For independent voters, economic growth and job creation (9%) and immigration (9%) followed close behind. For both groups, abortion and reproductive healthcare issues (2%) and regulating artificial intelligence (2%) ranked as the lowest priorities.

The starkest divergence between the two groups lies on immigration — independents rank it tied for second, while moderates rank it sixth — and on healthcare, which moderates prioritize far more heavily than their independent counterparts.

Texas Senate General Election

Among likely moderate voters, Democrat James Talarico holds a 43-point lead in the Senate race, with 63% reporting they plan to vote for him compared to just 20% who plan on voting for John Cornyn or Ken Paxton. 15% of moderate voters remain undecided.

Texas Gubernatorial General Election

Among likely moderate voters, Democrat Gina Hinojosa leads Republican Greg Abbott by a commanding 32-point margin, with 59% planning to vote for Hinojosa compared to 27% for Abbott. 13% of moderate voters remain undecided, and 2% say they would not vote in the race.

Texas Attorney General General Election

Among likely moderate voters, the Democratic candidate for Attorney General, whether Joe Jaworski or Nathan Johnson, leads their Republican counterpart by a 33-point margin, with 52% planning to vote for the Democrat compared to 19% for the Republican, whether that ends up being Mayes Middleton or Chip Roy. Notably, almost a quarter of moderate voters (24%) remain undecided in this race, and 4% say they would not vote in it.

We hope you enjoyed this breakdown on the direction of travel for moderates and independents in Texas. Stay tuned for more cutting edge data and analysis as these general election races unfold!

The survey of 1,865 likely general election voters was conducted from April 17 to April 20, 2026 and has a margin of error of ±2.5 percentage points. The full topline is available here, and crosstabs are available upon request.

The takeaway: In head-to-head matchups for U.S. Senate, Democrat James Talarico leads both John Cornyn (+3) and Ken Paxton (+5), powered by leading margins with moderates and independents.

The Top Ten Findings:

1. Talarico leads Cornyn 44% to 41%. Talarico’s three-point lead is powered by Black voters (+51), Latino voters (+32), and college-educated voters (+10). 11% are undecided.

2. Talarico leads Paxton 46% to 41%. Talarico’s five-point lead is driven by the same coalition: Black voters (+56), Latino voters (+27), and college-educated voters (+14). 9% are undecided.

3. Moderate voters break decisively for Talarico. Talarico leads Cornyn among moderate voters by 43 points (62% to 19%) and Paxton by 49 points (65% to 16%).

4. Independents break for Talarico by more than 20 points. 51% of independents back Talarico over Cornyn (29%), a 22-point margin. Against Paxton, Talarico leads with independents 53% to 28%.

5. 17% of self-identified “somewhat conservative” voters say they would back Talarico over Cornyn. Against Paxton, that number rises to 19%.

6. Both Cornyn and Paxton draw their strongest support from white, non-college-educated, and rural voters. Talarico leads college-educated voters by 10 points against Cornyn and 14 against Paxton, while the Republicans hold only single-digit advantages with non-college voters (+3 for Cornyn; +4 for Paxton).

7. Cornyn (-15) and Paxton (-10) post the lowest net favorability ratings of any public figure tested. Both underperform a generic “Republican candidate running for office” (+9), Greg Abbott (+2), and Donald Trump (-2). Hinojosa (+11) and Talarico (+7) both post solidly positive favorability.

8. Abbott leads Hinojosa 48% to 43% in the Governor’s race. Hinojosa keeps the race competitive by leading independents by 13 points and moderates by 32 points, and pulling 14% of somewhat conservative voters. She holds strong margins with Black (+57), Latino (+22), young (+49 with voters 18-24), and college-educated (+5) voters.

9. The Attorney General race is single digits. Republicans Mayes Middleton or Chip Roy lead Democrats Joe Jaworski or Nathan Johnson 45% to 39%, with Democrats leading independents by 9 points and moderates by 33 points.

10. Affordability is the top issue in Texas. 21% of likely voters cite affordability and the cost of living as the issue elected officials should prioritize most — more than double the next-closest issue. Affordability ranks first across Black (23%), Latino (23%), and white (21%) voters. Immigration (10%), healthcare access (9%), and economic growth (9%) follow.

For our first installment, we’re looking at the cost of living and the future of the “Texas Miracle” (the state’s reputation for low taxes, light regulation, and strong job growth), issues that have been cited as the most concerning by Texas voters in previous polls. While our state is booming with more jobs, increased growth, and an influx of new residents, the cost of living has skyrocketed and Texans are feeling it in their bank accounts. Housing costs have exploded. Healthcare bills are crushing working families. Groceries cost more every year. The promise of Texas has always been that if you work hard, you can get ahead, but for so many in the state, that promise is breaking down.

In the coming weeks, TPOR will be exploring voter sentiment around a unique set of policy proposals targeting the critical challenges at the heart of the affordability crisis in Texas. Some of the policies we plan to test are:

Housing

• Securing the Construction Labor Force: Protecting essential construction workers from deportation to prevent labor shortages that drive up costs.

• Housing Cost Relief Fund: A $10 billion, 10-year fund to expand rental assistance and develop affordable housing for low-income Texans, financed in part by a tax on properties valued over $5 million.

• Housing Supply Reform: Preventing cities from blocking affordable home types like duplexes and starter homes in existing neighborhoods.

• Faster, Lower-Cost Housing Made in Rural Texas: Establishing manufacturing hubs for prefabricated and 3D-printed homes in rural counties to create local jobs and increase housing supply, while deploying state surplus funds for immediate rental assistance.

• Land Value Tax: Shifting the tax burden onto land rather than improvements to discourage speculation and encourage development.

Healthcare

• Medicaid Expansion: Extending Medicaid coverage to the over 1 million Texans who currently fall through the cracks.

• Hospital Price Transparency and Price Setting: Setting standard prices for common medical procedures, so patients are not charged different amounts for the same care.

• Prescription Drug Pricing Board: Creating a state-backed “Texas Label” generic drug program to lower prescription costs for all Texans.

Economic Success and Shared Prosperity

• Agricultural Supply Chains and Food Insecurity: Compensating farmers to redirect surplus Texas-grown food to food banks and families in need.

• “Texas-First” closure of tax loopholes: Ensuring that Texas-based small and heritage businesses are not disadvantaged by workarounds that large multinationals use to reduce their tax burden.

• Reimbursing Local Communities: Using state funds to backfill local revenue lost due to property tax exemptions in communities with a high proportion of veterans.

• Taxing Speculative Wealth, Not Work: Ensuring that Texas-based working and middle-class families are not disadvantaged by a tax system that relies heavily on property and sales taxes, while high-value real estate transactions and speculative investment income carry a lighter burden.

Innovative Economic Policy Proposals

• A Texas Sovereign Wealth Fund: Directing a share of oil and gas revenue into a fund that pays an annual dividend to every Texas resident.

• Tying Minimum Wage to Inflation: Linking the Texas minimum wage to inflation with a five-year runway and small business tax incentives to ease the transition.

• Property Tax Relief Paid for By a State Income Tax on High Earners: Introducing a Texas state property tax cut on working- and middle-class households, funded by a state income tax on households making more than $3 million a year.

• A Universal Basic Income Pilot: Testing whether a guaranteed monthly income with no strings attached improves employment, mental health, and financial stability for low-income Texans, based on successful pilots in other states and cities.

Stay tuned! In the coming weeks TPOR will be polling Texans on each of these proposals, and we’ll be publishing the full results alongside political analysis and commentary. You won’t want to miss it.

This project is focused on the biggest questions facing Texans today, during one of the most dramatic and high-profile Texas election cycles in years. As candidates on both sides of the aisle court voters and policymakers in Austin continue to work, Texans’ questions about the future of our state will be top-of-mind. Some of those questions don’t fit neatly into traditional healthcare, education, or other policy buckets you see from most think tanks. The challenges Texans are wrestling with right now are messier, and more complex than standard policy categories.

So instead of re-treading familiar ground, we’re going to go directly to Texans, ask the questions that matter most, and build a data-driven policy agenda from the ground up. We’ll poll real Texans on real solutions, bring in experts and policymakers to pressure-test the ideas, and publish what we find.

Here’s how it works. Each month we’ll take on a new issue area in two phases: first laying out the policy ideas we plan to test alongside expert analysis and commentary, then sharing the polling results and the agenda that emerges from the data. We will also aim to put these ideas directly in front of policymakers and elected officials. The goal is to close the gap between what Texans actually want and what their leaders are doing.

Here are the issue areas we plan to cover:

1. Cost of Living and the Future of the Texas Miracle

• What do Texans want their leaders to do about the fact that Texas is booming but millions can’t afford to live here anymore?

• How do Texas families think we can bring down the cost of housing, healthcare, and groceries?

• What do Texans think it will take to make sure the next generation can still afford to buy a home and build a life here?

2. The Spirit of Texas and Our Broken Politics

• How do we protect what makes Texas, Texas as a thousand people a day move here?

• How do Texans think we should hold our big, diverse, fast-growing state together when we are more divided politically, culturally, and geographically than at any point in recent memory?

• What would it take for Texas to have a political system that people actually trust again, and reduce voter cynicism?

3. Isolation and the Loneliness Epidemic

• What do Texans think we should do about the fact that so many people, especially young men, feel more alone than ever?

• How do Texans want to protect our kids from what social media is doing to their mental health and their ability to connect?

• What do Texans believe can be done to rebuild the communities and gathering places that used to hold Texas together?

4. AI and the Future Texas Has to Win

• How do Texans think we make sure Texas workers, not just tech companies, benefit from the AI boom?

• What do Texans think it will take to keep the grid reliable and the water flowing as Texas grows faster than its infrastructure can handle?

• What will it look like for Texas to lead the world in the industries and technologies that will define the next 50 years?

5. Parenting in Texas is Harder Than It’s Ever Been

• What would it actually take to make Texas the best place in America to raise a family?

• What do Texans want leaders to do about the fact that starting a family has become a financial risk most Texans can’t afford?

• What do Texas parents think would help to defray high childcare costs and to help build communities needed for kids to thrive?

• What does it look like when a state actually invests in its children, not just as students, but as kids?

6. Living on the Border

• What kind of approach to immigration and the border do Texans want?

• Where do Texans want the state to take the lead, and how do they view the role of the federal government?

• What would it look like for Texas border communities to actually thrive, economically, culturally, and as a bridge between two great nations?

We’ll be publishing analysis, expert commentary, and polling results over the coming months. Please join us as we dive into this project, and feel free to share with anyone who might be interested.

Thank you!

The Texas Public Opinion Research Team

As the Democratic senate primary in Texas heats up, online chatter around the race has been buzzing. Outlets like the Dallas Morning News have framed the race as a showdown between the progressive and moderate wings of the Democratic party in Texas; however, our research suggests the divisiveness is far more nuanced than a binary fight. Reducing the race to “Crockett the outspoken fighter” and “Talarico the coalition builder” risks discounting the central demographic dynamics shaping voter motivation as this contest heads towards the finish line on March 3rd.

In today’s installment we’ll be diving right into the ideological debate by discussing voters’ ideological perceptions of Jasmine Crockett and James Talarico, as well as analyzing the demographic splits across these perceptions. If you’d like to explore this data further, please find our full topline and deck here.

KEY TAKEAWAYS:

• Uncertainty around Talarico: While a majority of voters (57%) describe Jasmine Crockett as liberal, voters are split when it comes to James Talarico, with a plurality of voters (30%) unsure of how to describe his ideology.

• Crockett seen as liberal, Talarico seen as moderate: Crockett is most likely to be described as liberal by college-educated (72%) and female voters (54%), while Talarico is significantly more likely to be viewed as moderate, specifically among Black voters (32%) and non-college-educated voters (26%).

• The Demographic Divide: White voters (32%) are more likely than Black voters (24%) to characterize Crockett as very liberal by an eight-point-margin, while for Talarico, Black voters (32%) are more likely than white voters (24%) to characterize him as moderate by an identical margin

Voter Ideological Perception: James Talarico

Among Democratic primary voters, ideological perspectives of either candidate are fluid and ambiguous.

Respondents in this poll do not place James Talarico neatly along the ideological spectrum. 9% describe him as very liberal, 26% as somewhat liberal, and 28% describe him as moderate. Just 7% describe him as conservative. Notably the largest share of voters, 30%, are unsure of how to describe his ideology.

Among Talarico’s supporters, a majority (58%) characterize him as liberal, while Crockett supporters are most likely to characterize him as moderate (32%).

Black voters (32%) are also more likely than white voters (24%) to describe Talarico as moderate and less likely to describe him as liberal (23% vs. 43%). 34% female voters were unsure about how to categorize him, while a plurality (31%) of male voters view him as a moderate (31%). College-educated voters are more likely to classify Talarico as liberal (44%) in comparison to non-college-educated voters, who are more likely to call him moderate (26%).

Voter Ideological Perception: Jasmine Crockett

When voters were asked to describe Jasmine Crockett’s approach to politics, 57% of respondents characterized her as liberal (29% very liberal, 28% somewhat liberal) and 16% as moderate. Voter perceptions of Crockett’s ideological underpinnings are slightly more calcified compared to Talarico. While a plurality of Texans in this poll were unsure of how to describe Talarico’s politics (30%), just 21% report such a sentiment when it comes to Crockett’s ideological disposition.

Talarico supporters are far more likely to classify her as very liberal (42%), while her supporters are divided between moderate (22%) and very liberal (32%). More than half (53%) of undecided voters were unsure how to classify her.

The diversity of perceptions of Jasmine Crockett’s ideology varies across demographic groups. Black voters are more inclined than white voters to view Crockett as moderate (28% vs. 13%) and less likely to describe her as very liberal (24% vs. 32%). An overwhelming majority of college-educated voters (72%) classify her as liberal, compared to 44% of non-college voters who brand her as liberal. Men are also more likely than women to describe Crockett as liberal (61% vs. 54%).

We hope you enjoyed the third installment of our Democratic Senate Primary breakdown in Texas. Stay tuned for more illuminating data on the dynamics of this race and beyond next week!

Key Takeaways:

• Voters Drawn to Different Strengths: Talarico voters are most motivated by his character, integrity, and relatability (32%), and his electability (16%) while Crockett supporters point to her people-first advocacy (22%) and her alignment with Democratic/liberal/progressive values(17%).

• Undecided Voters In The Balance: The 21% of undecided voters say that they’re looking for a candidate who projects integrity, honesty and transparency (28%), as well as working-class, anti-corporate priorities (21%) before they cast their ballot.

• Top Priorities and Tight Margins: Democratic voters rank coalition expansion, base enthusiasm, unity, and fighting back against Trump, as their top leadership traits. Yet they’re split on who best expands the coalition (36% Crockett, 35% Talarico). Crockett leads on energizing the base (+22), while Talarico holds a slim edge on unity (+3).

• Crockett the Fighter, Talarico the Pragmatist: Crockett is seen as the fighter — leading on fighting Trump (+36) and standing up to Republicans (+31). Talarico is viewed as more pragmatic — leading on working with Republicans (+8) and persuading Trump voters (+6). Notably, these are not the highest-ranked priorities overall.

Voter Motivation and Candidate Qualities

TPOR’s latest poll included a series of open-ended questions asking Talarico and Crockett supporters to explain, in their own words, why they were backing their preferred candidate.

Talarico voters most frequently cited his character, integrity, and relatability (32%) and his electability in a general election contest (16%). Motivating factors which ranked the lowest with these voters include party identification (5%), specific issue priorities (4%) and Talarico’s background as a teacher.

Crockett’s supporters most often identified her people-first advocacy around fairness and justice (22%) and her values alignment with Democratic, liberal, and progressive agendas (17%) as the strongest motivating factors. Crockett supporters were less likely to point to identity/representation (gender, race, community) (5%), issue-specific priorities (5%) and social influence/low information voting (1%) as factors animating their decision to vote for Crockett.

The 21% of Democratic primary voters who remain undecided in this race were asked, in their own words, to articulate what they were still looking for in a candidate. Integrity, honesty, and transparency (28%) was most frequently cited, followed by a candidate who would focus on working class/middle-class and anti-corporate priorities (21%) and lastly, a strong opposition to Trump/GOP.

Voter Priority: Candidate Advantage

When voters were asked about the qualities they most want to see from Democratic leaders in Texas, they ranked expanding the Democratic coalition by appealing to independents (+85), energizing the Democratic base (+85), focusing on unity rather than division (+84), and fighting back against the Trump administration’s agenda (+81) as most important. Working with Republicans to pass laws (+70), persuading Trump voters (+74), and standing up to Republicans (+77) ranked lowest.

When it comes to which candidate actually aligns with the leadership qualities voters value the most, Democrats in Texas are split.

This split is most pronounced when voters consider which candidate best embodies their top priority: expanding the Democratic coalition to appeal to independents and swing voters. Crockett holds a one-point advantage over Talarico (36% to 35%) when it comes to voter perceptions of coalition building capacity. Democratic voters in Texas clearly believe Crockett can energize the Democratic base (+22), however undecided voters in this poll give Talarico a two-point advantage in this area. When it comes to focusing on a message of unity, Talarico has a slim advantage with respondents (+3).

Here is the bottom line: Both candidates find their biggest advantages on issues voters prioritize less. Crockett holds significant margins on fighting back against Trump (+36) and standing up to Republicans (+31), while Talarico finds his largest margins on working with Republicans when possible (+8) and persuading Trump voters to consider voting for Democrats (+6).

We hope you enjoyed the second installment of our Democratic Senate Primary breakdown in Texas. Stay tuned for more illuminating data on the dynamics of this race and beyond next week!

Key Takeaways:

• Crockett and Talarico are neck-in-neck: US Rep. Jasmine Crockett (38%) and State Rep. James Talarico (37%) are tied in the Senate primary with Crockett leading among Black and non college educated voters, while Talarico leads among white and Latino voters. Notably, young voters are split between Talarico (34%) and Crockett (33%), with 28% undecided.

• Democratic voters are thinking about the coalition: Democrats—including Talarico and Crockett supporters—believe that working class (28%), Latino (27%), and young (27%) voters are the groups that the party needs to win back in order to be competitive statewide.

• Talarico faces a 15-point visibility gap: Likely Democratic primary voters say that they are seeing and hearing from Crockett (56%) more than Talarico (41%).

Horserace: Democratic Senate Primary

TPOR’s latest poll finds Texas Democratic primary voters are about evenly divided between US Rep. Jasmine Crockett (38%) and State Rep. James Talarico (37%), with 21% undecided.

An overwhelming majority of Black voters in this poll support Crockett (75%) while just 21% of these Texans are undecided. Talarico holds a 14-point advantage over Crockett among white voters (44% to 30%), however 21% of these voters remain undecided. Similarly, Talarico leads with Latino voters by 10- points (41% to 31%).

The race reflects a notable divide along class and educational lines. Talarico leads among college educated voters (46% to 34%) while Crockett holds a 15-point advantage with non-college educated respondents (42%-27%) in this poll. Crockett holds the advantage among 35-49 year olds (45%) and 50 to 64 year olds (40%), in contrast to Talarico who only leads among the 65+ voting group (39%). On the other hand, young voters are split between Talarico (34%) and Crockett (33%), with 28% undecided.

Crockett has a 3 point advantage among female voters (39%) while Talarico has a 1 point advantage among male voters (38%).

79% of Democratic primary voters surveyed are convinced that their candidate of choice could win a general election.

A closer look at the data on Crockett and Talarico supporters shows that Crockett supporters express a higher intensity of confidence: 40% are “very convinced” that she can win, while 39% are somewhat convinced. Among Talarico supporters 36% are “very convinced” that he can win and 44% are “somewhat convinced” Voters expressing the strongest conviction for their candidate were predominantly Black (47%), non-college educated (42%), and female (41%). Conversely, the largest share of voters who were ‘not convinced at all’ were white (3%) and non-college educated (3%).”

Bringing Voters Back to the Party

When considering the future of the party and which groups Democrats must win back or make gains with to be competitive in Texas, respondents point to working-class (28%), Latino (27%), and young voters (27%).

Talarico supporters most prioritize working-class (34%), Latino (31%), and young (28%) voters, while Crockett supporters most prioritize young (29%), Latino (28%), and working-class (25%) voters. Undecided voters prioritize the working class (31%), Trump voters(26%), and Latinos(24%).

Across racial demographics, perspectives on which groups Democrats need to prioritize vary. Black voters prioritize young voters (36%), Latino voters prioritize Latino voters (44%), and white voters prioritize working class voters (32%). College educated voters cite Latino voters (31%) while non college educated voters cite young voters (30%).

This diversity of priorities extends across age groups. Voters between the ages of 18-24 believe the Democratic Party needs to win back young voters the most (34%) while those between 35-49 (32%) and 65+ (34%) believe Latino voters are the priority. Working class voters are seen as the top priority (31%) for voters aged 50-64.

Candidate Visibility

When it comes to visibility Talarico faces a 15-point gap. A majority of likely Democratic primary voters (56%) say that in the last few weeks, they’ve seen or heard from Crockett very (23%) or somewhat (33%) often. Meanwhile, 41% say they’ve seen or heard from Talarico very (15%) or somewhat (26%) often.

Social media is the medium through which Talarico and Crockett are reaching the respondents the most. Voters reported hearing from Crockett most on social media (47%), followed by television or cable (39%). Notably, a plurality of voters were unsure (36%) where they last heard from James Talarico, with social media (35%) and television or cable news (30%) following shortly behind. Across all age groups under 65, Crockett and Talarico’s visibility is highest on social media, but for voters who are 65 and older television is the medium where they are seeing and hearing from Crockett (49%) and Talarico (46%) the most.

Most undecided voters are unsure about where they last saw or heard from Talarico (64%) and Crockett (61%).

Texas Public Opinion Research (TPOR), a nonpartisan public opinion initiative that examines what Texans believe and the policies they support, today released a new poll focused on the 2026 Democratic Senate primary race between U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett and State Rep. James Talarico. In addition to head-to-head matchup numbers, this survey of Democratic primary voters explores voter familiarity with and perceptions of the two candidates, Crockett and Talarico’s respective supporters’ reasons for supporting them (and doubts about their opponent), and who voters see as best positioned to win the general election for U.S. Senate in Texas. The poll also takes a deep look at what primary voters think it will take for a Democratic candidate to win the general election for U.S. Senate in Texas, including which demographic groups Democrats need to make gains with, candidate attributes, persuading Trump voters and turning out the base, and electability—and how they see the two candidates stacking up on these measures.

The survey of 1,290 likely Texas Democratic primary voters conducted from January 14 to January 21, 2026, and has a margin of error of ±3.7 percentage points. The full topline, deck, and recording of our presentation is available here, and crosstabs are available upon request.

Key Findings

• Likely Democratic primary voters are statistically tied between US Rep. Jasmine Crockett (38%) and State Rep. James Talarico (37%) in the Senate primary. Twenty-one percent remain undecided.

• Crockett leads with Black, non-college-educated, and middle-aged voters, while Talarico leads with white, Latino, and college-educated voters.

• Likely Democratic primary voters say they are seeing and hearing from Crockett (56%) more often than Talarico (41%).

• Talarico voters are most motivated by his character, integrity, and relatability (32%), and his electability (16%).

• Crockett supporters are most motivated by her people-first advocacy (22%), her values alignment (17%), and her competence, intelligence, and experience (16%).

• On the question of which candidate is more likely to appeal to voters Democrats need to win in 2026 and beyond, Talarico holds a two-point advantage (38% to 36%), with 25% saying they’re not sure.

• Likely Democratic primary voters overall believe that Crockett is more likely than Talarico to turn out loyal Democrats by 10 points, 42% to 32%.

• Talarico supporters believe his demographics and religious messaging make him the better candidate, and are worried about the bias Crockett would face.

• Crockett supporters point to her authenticity and fight as why she can win, and worry that Talarico’s name ID and visibility are too low to be viable.

“Crockett and Talarico are running neck-and-neck in the Texas Democratic primary for U.S. Senate,” said Luke Warford, director of TPOR. “Texas Democrats are saying loud and clear that they want a candidate who puts the general election in play by both appealing to Trump voters and energizing the Democratic base. Both Crockett and Talarico supporters believe their candidate possesses those qualities, with an advantage to Talarico on winning new voters and an advantage to Crockett on base mobilization.”

As the election draws nearer, both candidates will have to make the case to Democratic voters that they can get the job done in November.”

Senate Primary

Head-to-Head Matchup: Crockett and Talarico

The poll finds Texas Democratic primary voters about evenly divided between US Rep. Jasmine Crockett (38%) and State Rep. James Talarico (37%), with 21% undecided.

Black voters overwhelmingly support Crockett, at 75%, with only 12% undecided. Talarico leads among white voters (44% to 30%) and Latino voters (41% to 31%). Twenty-five percent of Latino voters and 21% of white voters are undecided.

Talarico’s highest level of support comes from college-educated voters, at 46%, compared to 34% for Crockett. At 42%, Crockett leads Talarico among non-college-educated voters by 15 points.

Younger voters (ages 18-34) are roughly split between Talarico (34%) and Crockett (33%), with 28% undecided. Crockett holds an eight-point advantage among 35-to-49 year-olds (44%) and a three-point advantage among 50-to-64 year-olds (40%), while Talarico leads with voters ages 65+ by four points (39%).

Crockett holds a four-point advantage among female voters (39%), while Talarico holds a one-point advantage among male voters (38%).

Candidate Favorability, Familiarity, Visibility, and Perceived Ideology

With a little over a month to go until Primary Day, Democratic primary voters are more familiar with Crockett and say they are seeing and hearing from her more often.

Seventy-seven percent have an opinion on Crockett and just 15% say they’ve never heard of her. Fifty-eight percent have an opinion on Talarico, and 27% say they’ve never heard of him. Crockett’s favorability rating is net +61, with 69% viewing her favorably and 8% viewing her unfavorably. Talarico’s favorability rating is net +47, with 52% viewing him favorably and 5% viewing him unfavorably.

A majority of voters, 56%, say that in the last few weeks, they’ve seen or heard from Crockett very (23%) or somewhat (33%) often. Meanwhile, 41% say they’ve seen or heard from Talarico very (15%) or somewhat (26%) often.

Both candidates are reaching voters most on social media, where 47% say they’ve seen or heard from Crockett in the last few weeks and 35% say the same for Talarico, followed by television or cable news, where 39% say they’ve seen or heard from Crockett and 30% have seen or heard from Talarico. Crockett has an advantage on word-of-mouth reach, with 13% saying they’ve heard about her from friends or family, compared with 9% for Talarico.

Fifty-seven percent of voters describe Crockett as liberal, with 29% calling her “very” liberal, while just 16% see her as moderate. Voters are more split in their perceptions of Talarico. Thirty-five percent describe him as liberal, and 28% view him as moderate (+8 compared to Crockett).

Fifty-eight of Talarico supporters characterize him as liberal, while Crockett supporters are more likely to describe him as moderate (32%). Talarico supporters are far more likely to see Crockett as very liberal (42%), while Crockett supporters are more divided, with 32% describing her as very liberal and 22% as moderate. Black voters (32%) are more likely than white voters (24%) to describe Talarico as moderate and less likely to describe him as liberal (23% vs. 43%). Black voters are also more likely than white voters to view Crockett as moderate (28% vs. 13%) and less likely to describe her as very liberal (24% vs. 32%).

Crockett and Talarico Supporter Motivation and Confidence

Of Democratic primary voters who are supporting either Crockett or Talarico, an overwhelming majority, 79%, express conviction that their preferred candidate can win the general election for U.S. Senate in Texas. Intensity of confidence is somewhat higher among Crockett supporters: 40% are “very” convinced she can win, and 39% are “somewhat” convinced. Thirty-six percent of Talarico supporters are “very” convinced he can win and 44% are “somewhat” convinced.

Supporters of Talarico and Crockett give differing reasons for supporting their preferred candidate. In open-ended questions probing why Texas Democrats support the candidates, Talarico supporters are most motivated by his character, integrity, and relatability (32%). They also cite his electability and strategic voting (16%), Talarico’s alignment with their policy preferences and shared principles (14%), and his positioning as a candidate of change, anti-establishment, and anti-MAGA (11%).

Crockett supporters are most motivated by her people-first advocacy around fairness and justice (22%), her values alignment with Democratic, liberal, and progressive agendas (17%), her competence, intelligence, and experience (16%), as well as her positioning as an outspoken, fearless truth-teller (14%) and her opposition to Republicans and Trump in confronting their wrongdoing (11%).

Undecided voters are looking for a candidate who has integrity, honesty, and transparency (28%), has a working- and middle-class focus with anti-corporate priorities (21%), and shows opposition to Trump and the GOP and a partisan fighting spirit (12%).

Voter Views on Persuasion, Turnout, and Electiability

Democratic primary voters overall see working-class (28%), Latino (27%), and young (27%) voters as the groups Democrats most need to win back or make gains with in order to be competitive in Texas in 2026 and beyond. Talarico supporters most prioritize working-class (34%), Latino (31%), and young (28%) voters, while Crockett supporters most prioritize young (29%), Latino (28%), and working-class (25%) voters.

Eighty-eight percent of voters believe it is important for the Democratic Senate nominee to be able to persuade and win over Trump voters, with 66% saying it’s “very” important, including 62% of undecided voters. Notably, seventy-four percent of female voters say it’s “very” important, compared to 55% of male voters who say the same.

Compared to Talarico supporters (66%), a slightly higher share of Crockett supporters (69%) say the eventual nominee’s ability to make gains with Trump voters is “very” important. Crockett supporters (23%) are also slightly more likely than Talarico supporters (20%) to say that Trump voters are among the groups Democrats most need to win back.

Texas Democrats are split on which candidate is more likely to appeal to the voters that they believe Democrats will need to win in Texas in 2026 and beyond, with 38% believing Talarico has more appeal and 36% saying Crockett has more appeal. Notably, among Talarico supporters, 92% believe that Talarico is more likely to appeal to these voters, while 76% of Crockett supporters say the same of her.

However, Texas Democrats believe that Crockett (42%) is more likely than Talarico (32%) to turn out loyal Democratic voters in 2026 and beyond. Supporters of both Crockett and Talarico believe their preferred candidate is capable of motivating base turnout: 83% among Crockett supporters, 80% among Talarico supporters, but undecided voters break toward Crockett, 18% to 12%.

Eighty-three percent of voters say electability is an important factor in their decision of which candidate to support. Fifty-six percent of Talarico supporters say it is “very” important to their decision, while 50% of Crockett supporters say the same. Fifty-two percent of undecided voters say it is “very” important to their decision and 28% say it is “somewhat” important. The share of younger voters (ages 18-34) (45%), Black (46%), and non-college-educated (47%) voters who say electability is “very” important is lower, while it’s higher for voters ages 50-64 (56%), Latino voters (56%), and college-educated voters (55%).

Voter Views on Which Candidate Can Win the General Election and Why

Talarico holds a slight advantage on who Democratic primary voters believe is most likely to defeat a Republican candidate for U.S. Senate in Texas, 32% to 27%. Seventy-seven percent of Talarico supporters say he is better positioned to win the general election, while 15% believe both candidates are equally likely. However, just 57% of Crockett supporters say she is more likely to win the general election, with 25% saying both candidates are equally likely.

To probe deeper on this, we asked supporters of both candidates open-ended questions about why they think their preferred Democratic candidate would be most likely to defeat a Republican candidate in a general election for the U.S. Senate in Texas, and why the other Democratic candidate would be less likely to win the general election.

Talarico supporters cite his demographic advantage as a white male Christian (26%), his moderate/mainstream positioning and broad electability (20%), his religious appeal and faith-based messaging (15%), and his character, integrity, and anti-corruption message (12%) as the top reasons for his general election viability. These same Talarico supporters worry that Crockett would fare worse in a general election due to intersectional bias against her as a Black woman (31%), her polarizing communication style and personality polarization (17%), and generic bias against candidates who are women (17%) or Black (10%).

Crockett supporters believe she would perform better in a general election due to her authentic, relatable, “for the people” approach (19%), her positioning as a tough fighter who won’t back down (18%), her ability to build a coalition and mobilize key demographics (14%), and her ability as a persuasive communicator and strong debater (13%). Crockett supporters worry that Talarico would be hamstrung in a general election by his low name recognition and visibility (41%), issues related to his trustworthiness, character, and morals (14%), weak campaigning or lack of fight (14%), and his insufficient experience and qualifications (10%).

What Voters Want from Democratic Leaders in Texas—and How Talarico and Crockett Stack Up

Democratic primary voters identified electorally-minded attributes as the most important qualities they want in Texas Democratic leaders: expanding the Democratic coalition by appealing to independents and swing voters (+85 important), energizing the Democratic base (+85), and focusing on a message of unity rather than division (+84).

However, voters are split on which Senate primary candidate demonstrates these qualities. They are especially divided on who will be best at expanding the coalition, awarding Crockett a one-point advantage, 36% to 35%. Crockett has a clear advantage on energizing the Democratic base (+22), while Talarico has a narrower advantage on focusing on a message of unity (+3).

Both candidates find their biggest advantages on issues voters prioritize less: Crockett holds significant margins on fighting back against Trump (+36) and standing up to Republicans (+31), while Talarico finds his largest margins on working with Republicans when possible (+8) and persuading Trump voters to consider voting for Democrats (+6).

Top Issues: Democratic Primary Voters

Affordability and cost of living is the most important political issue for Texas Democratic primary voters by a significant margin. Asked to choose the two issues they believe are most important for elected officials in Texas to prioritize in 2026, more than a half (52%) select affordability and cost of living. Health care access and costs (38%) ranks second, with all other issues selected by fewer than 20% of voters.

Voter priorities (percentage selecting each issue as one of the top-two issues that elected officials should prioritize in 2026):

1. Affordability and the cost of living: 52%

2. Health care access and costs: 38%

3. Social Security and Medicare 19%

4. Economic growth and job creation 17%

5. Democracy and voting rights 17%

6. Climate change and the environment: 10%

7. Education and public schools: 9%

8. Abortion and reproductive health issues: 9%

9. Immigration: 8%

10. Taxes: 4%

11. Public safety: 4%

12. Border security: 2%

13. Infrastructure and the electric grid: 2%

14. Regulating artificial intelligence: 2%

15. Oil and gas production: -

16. Other: 1%

17. Don’t know: 1%

Gubernatorial & Attorney General Primaries

Gina Hinojosa leads the Democratic primary for Governor of Texas with 29%, with all other candidates in single digits. 59% of primary voters remain undecided in that race.

The Democratic primary for Attorney General of Texas remains remarkably underdeveloped. Nathan Johnson leads with 10%, followed by Joe Jaworski with 5% and Tony Box at 2%. Fully 78% of Democratic primary voters remain undecided in that race.

Today at 12 PM CT/1 PM EST, Texas Public Opinion Research (TPOR)—a nonpartisan polling initiative dedicated to exploring Texans’ beliefs and priorities—will hold a virtual briefing to present its new poll focused on the 2026 Democratic Senate primary race between US Rep. Jasmine Crockett and State Rep. James Talarico. In addition to the head-to-head horserace matchup numbers, this poll of likely Texas Democratic primary voters explores:

• How much voters have heard about the candidates and where they’re hearing it;

• What voters believe it will take for a Democratic candidate to be competitive in the general election, including which issues and approaches they think should be prioritized in the eventual showdown with the Republican nominee;

• Voter views on the importance of persuasion, electability, and turning out the base—and the respective candidates’ strengths and weaknesses on those fronts;

• How convinced they are that a Democratic candidate can win this race.

This poll goes beyond the horserace, providing insight into how Texas Democratic voters are thinking about the path to victory in a state where Republicans haven’t lost a statewide race in three decades—and which of these two high-profile, compelling candidates they see as best equipped to lead the way.

Register for the briefing webinar here.

WHERE:
Zoom (register here)

WHO:
Luke Warford, Director, Texas Public Opinion Research
Evan Roth Smith, Slingshot Strategies pollster

WHEN:
TODAY, Thursday, Jan. 29, 2026, 12:00 PM CT/1:00 PM EST

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About Texas Public Opinion Research

Texas Public Opinion Research (TPOR) is a first-of-its-kind, nonpartisan initiative dedicated to studying and analyzing Texans’ beliefs, attitudes, values, and policy preferences. TPOR seeks to play a leading role in providing high-quality data and analysis that helps researchers, academics, government officials, policymakers, nonprofit groups, and businesses understand a diverse, complex, and too-often misunderstood state. TPOR also helps Texans better understand the views of their fellow residents. TPOR will look beyond issues to examine the values shaping voters’ opinions and track the sentiments of key demographics over time. Through ongoing, comprehensive public opinion research, TPOR aims to illuminate what Texans want and how they feel about the condition and direction of their state. This will help elected officials and policymakers align their actions with the interests and needs of the people they serve, allowing the public to hold elected officials accountable. TPOR aims to close the gap between decision-makers and the public, ensuring policymaking is driven by the voices of Texans, rather than misconceptions fostered by unreliable information or misrepresentation by advocacy groups. TPOR will conduct research on a quarterly basis, providing clear, digestible, and actionable insights into voter sentiment on the state’s most pressing issues. With no obligation to any particular point of view, political position, partisan group, or special interest, TPOR is committed to serving as the go-to neutral source of reliable information about the Texas population and electorate.