Introducing Texas Public Opinion Research (TPOR)!
A first-of-its-kind, nonpartisan polling initiative
Welcome
Hey y’all, thanks for being here. Today, we're thrilled to be launching Texas Public Opinion Research (TPOR), a quarterly polling project focused on understanding Texans’ beliefs, attitudes, values, and policy preferences, in partnership with Lake Research Partners, one of the top pollsters in the country. Below, you’ll find an overview of TPOR and a LOT of info outlining the key findings of our first poll. In future posts, we’ll dive into more detail to better understand the texture of Texas. Please follow along as we dive into the data over the coming months and share our free Substack with anyone who might be interested! Thank you!
About TPOR
Texas Public Opinion Research is a first-of-its-kind, nonpartisan initiative dedicated to studying and analyzing Texans’ beliefs, attitudes, values and policy preferences. As part of our work, we strive to help Texans better understand the views of their fellow residents, while providing high-quality data and analysis that helps researchers, academics, government officials, policymakers, nonprofit groups, and businesses understand a diverse, complex, and rapidly changing state.Texas is one of the most consequential yet least understood states in the country - we aim to fix that.
Our objective is to look beyond issues to examine the values shaping voters’ opinions and track the sentiments of key demographics over time. Through ongoing, comprehensive public opinion research, we will illuminate what Texans want and how they feel about the condition and direction of their state, while helping elected officials and policymakers align their actions with the interests and needs of the people they serve, allowing the public to hold elected officials accountable.
Politics is partisan, but policy doesn’t have to be. The Texas miracle is built on bipartisan collaboration and we hope to use nonpartisan research to help Texas achieve outcomes Texans want. We hope this initiative will close the gap between decision-makers and the public, to ensure that policymaking is driven by the voices of Texans, rather than misconceptions fostered by unreliable information or misrepresentation by special interest groups.
This poll is the first installment of our quarterly polling, which will provide clear, digestible, actionable insights into voter sentiment on the state’s most pressing issues. With no obligation to any particular point of view, political position, partisan group, or special interest. We plan to serve as the go-to-neutral source of reliable information about the Texas population and electorate.
Key Findings
Our first poll, out today, has been conducted by Lake Research Partners, a prominent national polling firm with deep Texas experience. For this poll, TPOR surveyed 800 registered voters in Texas from August 24 through August 29. It was conducted over the phone and online in English and Spanish, with an oversample of 100 Latino voters and 100 Black voters. The poll has a margin of error of ±3.5 percentage points. The toplines from the poll can be found here, and the crosstabs are available upon request. More analysis of our first poll will be available on this substack in the coming weeks, and our upcoming quarterly polls will be here too.
Below, you’ll find an overview of the findings from our first poll about Texas values, Texans’ ideologies, how Texans view key issues and what their preferences are, as well as a closer look at Texans by region and demography. We also check in on some high-profile elections, and how leading politicians are viewed by Texans. You’ll find lots of details below, and deep dives into this data in the coming weeks, but some key takeaways are:
The top issues for Texas voters are border security, affordability, abortion, education;
Rep. Colin Allred trails Sen. Ted Cruz, by 4 points; 47% to 43%, Allred is less known to voters;
Latino Texans hold similar views on immigration and the border as Texans overall, viewing the issue as primarily about community safety and slowing the flow of migrants;
Texas voters don’t identify climate issues or oil and gas production are top priorities, ranking them behind issues like affordability, border security, abortion and education;
Texans’ top values and pride in their state center on freedom, rather than opportunity.
Voters’ Views on Texas: Its Direction, Values, and Political Priorities
Values and Texas Pride
Freedom makes more Texans proud of their state than its economic approach; Texans overwhelmingly prioritize "freedom" as the value most important to them (33%), followed by "family" (23%). The set of values centered around personal liberty and ethics significantly outperforms productivity-oriented values such as "opportunity" (6%) or "hard work" (10%). This low prioritization of values related to productivity or the economy is mirrored in what makes Texans proud of their state, where answers related to freedom (22%) dramatically outperform hard work (5%), opportunity (4%), or tax policy (3%).
Specifically, when asked to select up to two values most important to them, 33% of Texas voters select freedom, 23% family, and 18% accountability. Somewhat less frequently chosen values include faith (16%), morality (16%), and equality (14%). Additionally, a relatively small share of voters choose personal responsibility (12%), kindness or compassion (11%), respect (11%), hard work (10%), fairness (8%), independence (7%), and opportunity (6%). Democrats are more likely to say they are proud of Texas values of equality (31%) and freedom (24%), while Republicans are more likely to emphasize the state’s freedom (39%) and family (31%).
When asked to name what makes them proud to be a Texan, 13% say freedoms/rights, 11% say being born and raised a Texan, 9% cite conservative values/politics, and 9% mention Southern culture/hospitality. Another 9% point to the ability to be free, sovereign, and independent. Six percent mention the state’s diversity and "good people," 5% choose hard work and grit, and 5% cite shared values or beliefs.
Notably, 11% of voters say they are not proud to be a Texan. Latino voters express particular pride in being born and raised in Texas (14%) and Texas’ freedoms and rights (15%). "Not proud" (19%) is the most common choice for Black voters (19%) and Democrats (21%), compared to just 8% of Latino voters and 11% of white voters.
Direction of the State
A majority of Texas voters think their state is on the wrong track. Forty-one percent feel Texas is headed in the right direction, while 52% believe it’s on the wrong track (net -9). There is a very large partisan split on perception of Texas’ direction, as Republicans are much more optimistic about it than Democrats; 65% of Republicans believe Texas is headed in the right direction, and 27% believe it’s on the wrong track.
Meanwhile, only 15% of Democrats say the state is headed in the right direction, while 81% think it’s going in the wrong direction. Men are 12 percentage points more optimistic about the direction of the state than women. Forty-four percent of men believe the state is headed in the right direction, while 48% say it’s on the wrong track (-4). Meanwhile, 39% of women believe the state is on the right track, while 55% think it’s on the wrong track (-16).
Black voters are significantly more pessimistic about the direction of Texas than the general population. Sixty-four percent of Black voters say the state is on the wrong track, and 29% believe it’s on the right track. Fifty-four percent of Latino voters think it’s on the wrong track, while 42% say the state is headed in the right direction.
Texans are slightly more optimistic about their local communities than they are about the state as a whole. Forty-six percent say that things are going in the right direction in their community, compared to 41% who believe it’s on the wrong track (+5). Black voters are more optimistic about the direction of their communities than other voters. Fifty percent of Black voters say their community is headed in the right direction, while 36% believe it’s on the wrong track (+14). Latino voters are slightly more pessimistic about their own communities. Thirty-eight percent of Latino voters say things in their community are going in the right direction, while 43% say things are on the wrong track (-5).
Political Priorities—and Who Voters Trust to Address Them
Voters want their elected officials to focus on border security, affordability, cost of living, abortion, and education. Other issues, such as climate change, public safety, and oil and gas production, are relatively lower priorities for Texans. When asked which two issues are the most important for elected officials in Texas to focus on, 34% of respondents select border security, 29% affordability and the cost of living, 24% abortion and reproductive health issues, and 23% education and public schools. 14% choose infrastructure and the electric grid, 13% immigration, 13% economic growth and job creation, 10% health care, 9% taxes, 8% oil and gas production, 8% public safety, and 5% climate change.
Black voters are particularly concerned about affordability and the cost of living (39%), abortion/reproductive health (32%), and education/public schools (27%). Latino voters are most concerned about affordability (35%), border security (26%), and education/public schools (26%).
There is a large partisan divide on border security. For example, 60% of Republicans say it is a top issue, compared to just 4% of Democrats. Abortion and reproductive health also show a significant divide: 45% of Democrats say it is a top issue, compared to just 7% of Republicans. Forty percent of Democrats want politicians to prioritize education and public schools, while only 11% of Republicans share this view.
When asked which party is better at addressing key political issues, Texans perceive Democrats as significantly better at restoring access to abortion rights and protecting access to birth control (+47 compared to Republicans), protecting clean air and water (+24), and making healthcare and prescription drugs more affordable (+11). Meanwhile, Republicans are seen as stronger on attracting new businesses (+32), lowering property taxes (+24), reducing crime and improving public safety (+22), and addressing immigration and border security (+17).
On high-salience issues related to the economy and education, voters are more evenly split between the parties. Democrats are seen as slightly better at improving the quality of public education (+4), while Republicans are seen as marginally better at making life more affordable for Texas working families (+5).
Border Security and Immigration
Border security and immigration are top-of-mind for many Texas voters, with 34% listing border security as a top issue for elected officials. Most voters think of immigration primarily as a safety and security concern or as a means of controlling the flow of migrants, rather than as a humanitarian or resource issue. Thirty-one percent view it primarily as a safety issue, 24% focus on controlling the flood of immigrants, 32% consider it a humanitarian crisis, and 11% think of it primarily as a resource issue.
Latino voters' views on immigration align closely with the sentiment of the entire electorate. Twenty-nine percent of Latino voters view immigration as a safety issue, 19% focus on controlling migration, 33% consider it a humanitarian crisis, and 13% see it as a resource issue.
When it comes to solutions on immigration and the border, voters prefer a balanced approach, with 48% favoring securing the border while also increasing legal pathways for entry, 33% favoring stricter asylum and refugee policies, and 16% prefer an approach that focuses solely on increasing legal pathways to the U.S.
When asked which party would better handle immigration and border security, 54% of Texans say Republicans, while 32% say Democrats. Republicans have particularly strong support on this issue from white voters (63%) and men (61%). Latino voters are evenly split, with 42% trusting Democrats and 42% trusting Republicans. Independents are more likely to favor Republicans, with 54% believing they would do a better job, compared to 27% who favor Democrats.
Economy, Affordability, and Cost of Living
Affordability and the cost of living are top issues for voters, with 29% of respondents selecting it as a priority. Another 13% prioritize economic growth and job creation. However, most Texans are more concerned about rising prices than the availability of jobs; 31% of Texans say their top concern is that wages aren’t keeping up with the cost of living, while just 2% cite a lack of good-paying jobs in their area. Other concerns include the cost of food (18%), housing (13%), healthcare (8%), and saving for retirement (8%).
Voters are nearly evenly split on which party is better at addressing affordability. Forty-six percent trust Republicans to handle the issue, while 41% trust Democrats. Independents are also split, with 39% siding with Democrats and 40% with Republicans. On creating good-paying jobs, 45% of Texans trust Republicans, while 40% trust Democrats.
However, when it comes to attracting businesses, Republicans have a clear edge. Fifty-nine percent of voters trust Republicans to attract new businesses, while only 27% trust Democrats. Republicans have even stronger support among independents, with 62% favoring them on this issue.
When it comes to solutions for rising costs, 38% of voters support deregulation, 27% favor increasing the minimum wage and worker protections, and 30% want both deregulation and higher wages.
Abortion and Reproductive Health
Abortion and reproductive health is a top concern for many Texas voters, selected by 24% as one of the most important issues. This issue is particularly important to Black voters (32%), women (30%), and Democrats (45%).
A majority of Texas voters support expanding access to abortion. Fifty-two percent believe the state’s abortion laws are too restrictive, 12% think they are too lenient, and 25% say the current laws strike the right balance. Interestingly, 23% of Republicans say that Texas’ current laws mean that abortion is not accessible enough, compared to 20% who say abortion is too accessible. Women are more likely to say that abortion is not accessible enough (57% of women versus 46% of men), and 89% of Democrats believe that the current laws in Texas make abortion too difficult to access.
When presented with various approaches to abortion, 34% of voters believe abortion should be generally legal and available, with only limited regulation. Another 34% think it should be legal only in extreme cases, such as to save the life of the woman or in cases of rape or incest. 21% support some regulation but believe abortion should remain legal in many circumstances, while 9% believe all abortions should be illegal.
Education
Education is a top-five issue for Texans, with 23% selecting it as a priority. A majority (60%) believe Texas public schools do not receive enough funding, while 20% say they receive about the right amount, and 9% say they receive too much. Black voters (69%) and Latino voters (63%) are more likely than white voters (57%) to say that public schools are underfunded.
When asked about state tax revenue for education, 63% of voters say it should exclusively fund public schools, while 32% think it should also fund private schools. A plurality of Republicans (48%) agree that tax revenue should only fund public schools, while 45% believe it should fund both public and private institutions. Black voters (70%) are the most likely to say that state tax revenue should only fund public schools.
Voters are divided on which party is better at improving public education; 46% of Texans say Democrats are better on the issue, while 42% favor Republicans. However, 50% of independents trust Democrats to improve education, while 34% favor Republicans. Black voters (70%) and Latino voters (51%) are also more likely than the rest of the electorate to trust Democrats to improve public education.
Energy, Power Grid, and Oil & Gas Production
Voters are split on the best approach to address Texas’ energy needs. Thirty-one percent favor promoting renewable energy to make the electric grid more reliable and reduce costs, 32% support a balanced approach that includes both renewables and fossil fuels, and 33% prioritize natural gas and oil because
they drive the Texas economy. Democrats overwhelmingly favor renewable energy (60%), while Republicans prefer natural gas and oil (59%). Independents are more evenly split, with 31% favoring oil and gas production and 29% preferring renewable energy.
Views on energy policy differ between races and genders. For example, 40% of Black voters support promoting renewable energy, 9 points higher than the general population. Men (38%) are more likely than women (29%) to favor oil and gas production.
When it comes to which party is best at preventing power outages, voters are divided. Thirty-nine percent believe Texas Democrats would do a better job, while 42% favor Republicans. Forty-one percent of independents side with Democrats on this issue, compared to 34% who side with Republicans.
Oil and gas production is not a particularly high priority for voters, with only 8% selecting it as a top issue for elected officials. Rising energy costs are also a relatively minor concern, with just 6% saying it is their top personal financial worry. However, infrastructure and the electric grid rank higher, as 14% of voters, and 21% of Democrats, regard it as an issue that should be a priority for elected officials.
Voters’ Ideology and Views of Key Texas and National Politicians
Baseline Ideology
Forty-three percent of Texans identify as conservative, 31% as liberal, and 27% as moderate. Despite the state's conservative tilt, Project 2025 is deeply unpopular; only 11% view it favorably and 51% express an unfavorable opinion about it.
On a scale from 0 (most conservative) to 10 (most liberal), the average self-assessed ideology of the Texas voter is 4.3, placing the electorate slightly right-of-center. The politician ideologically closest to the average Texas voter is Donald Trump, who scores a 1.9, just 2.4 points to the right of the mean Texas voter. Rep. Colin Allred is rated at 6.8, which is 2.5 points to the left of the average voter. And voters perceive Sen. Ted Cruz to be at 1.6—2.7 points to the left of the average voter.
Vice President Kamala Harris and former Rep. Beto O’Rourke are seen as ideologically furthest from Texas voters, both scoring 8.3.
Mean Ideology Statewide: 4.3 on a scale from 0 (most conservative) to 10 (most liberal),
Mean Ideology by Region
Houston: 4.6 (leans slightly more moderate)
Dallas: 4.2 (close to statewide mean)
Central/East Texas: 4.8 (leans more moderate)
South Texas: 4.0 (leans slightly more conservative)
Mean Ideology by Race
White: 3.9 (leans more conservative)
Black: 5.7 (leans more liberal)
Latino: 4.7 (leans slightly more liberal)
Mean Ideology by Party
Democrats: 6.7 (leans more liberal)
Independents: 4.6 (leans slightly more moderate)
Republicans: 2.2 (leans more conservative)
Mean Ideology by Gender
Men: 4.0 (leans slightly more conservative)
Women: 4.6 (leans slightly more liberal)
National and Texas Candidate and Elected Official Favorability
Rep. Colin Allred, the Democratic Senate candidate, is the most popular politician surveyed (+14 net favorable), though he is also the least known, with 44% of voters having no opinion of him or not recognizing his name. In contrast, Sen. Ted Cruz is much more familiar to voters, with only 4% of voters having no opinion, but less popular at -8 net favorability statewide. Donald Trump is the second-most popular candidate, with a +4 net favorability score, while Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick has the lowest favorability rating, at -13.
Colin Allred: 35% favorable, 21% unfavorable (+14)
Donald Trump: 52% favorable, 47% unfavorable (+5)
Governor Greg Abbott: 47% favorable, 47% unfavorable (+0)
Sen. Ted Cruz: 46% favorable, 50% unfavorable (-4)
Beto O’Rourke: 41% favorable, 50% unfavorable (-9)
Vice President Kamala Harris: 44% favorable, 54% unfavorable (-10)
Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick: 28% favorable, 40% unfavorable (-12)
Horse Race: Generic Republican vs. Democrat Ballot, Senate Race, and Presidential Election
Forty-two percent of Texans express a strong preference for Republicans in congressional races, compared to 35% who strongly favor Democrats. When considering soft partisans and leaners, Republicans lead 51% to 43% in the generic congressional ballot.
This matches the vote share in the pre-presidential debate horse race polling numbers: Donald Trump leads Kamala Harris 51% to 43%.
Third-party candidates Jill Stein and Chase Oliver both receive 1% support. In the U.S. Senate race, Sen. Ted Cruz leads Rep. Colin Allred by 47% to 43%—a slightly tighter race than the state’s baseline partisanship.
Generic Republican vs. Generic Democrat:
Democrat: 43%
Republican: 51%
Undecided: 3%
Other/Refused: 3%
U.S. Senate Race:
Colin Allred: 42%
Ted Cruz: 47%
Ted Brown: 5%
Presidential Race (pre-debate):
Kamala Harris: 43%
Donald Trump: 51%
Jill Stein: 1%
Chase Oliver: 1%
Undecided: 1%
Would not vote/Refused: 2%
 | A guest post by
|