Texas Public Opinion Research (TPOR)—a nonpartisan polling initiative dedicated to exploring Texans’ beliefs and priorities—today released a new poll of likely Texas general election voters, focused on the 2026 statewide races, including the contests for U.S. Senate, Governor, Attorney General, Lieutenant Governor, Comptroller, Agriculture Commissioner, Land Commissioner, and Railroad Commissioner.
This is the first in a series of monthly tracking polls that TPOR will release through the November 3 election.
The poll finds Democrat James Talarico (48%) leading Republican Ken Paxton (42%) by six points in the U.S. Senate race. Meanwhile, Republican Greg Abbott (49%) leads Democrat Gina Hinojosa (42%) by seven points in the Governor’s race. In the Attorney General’s race, Republican Mayes Middleton leads Democrat Nathan Johnson by three points (44% to 41%).
Note: For this tracking poll series, topline results include leaners.
The survey of 1,000 likely Texas voters was conducted from August 21 to August 24, 2026 and has a margin of error of ±3.3 percentage points. The full topline is available here, and crosstabs are available upon request.
Key Findings:
James Talarico (48%) leads Republican Ken Paxton (42%) by six points in the U.S. Senate race, with 7% of voters still undecided. Libertarian Ted Brown receives 1% of the vote.
Among independents, Talarico leads by a 21-point margin (51% to 30%), with 14% undecided. Paxton leads with white voters and voters over ages 55 and older. Talarico leads with Black voters, Latino voters, younger voters, college-educated voters, and women.
Greg Abbott (49%) leads Gina Hinojosa (42%) by seven points in the Governor’s race, with 6% of voters still undecided. Libertarian Pat Dixon receives 1% of the vote, as does independent candidate Jenn Mack Raphoon.*
*Write-in candidate; not listed on the ballot.
Greg Abbott has a net job approval rating of 0, with 48% approving the way he is performing his job as Governor and 48% disapproving. Forty percent approve of the way Ken Paxton is performing his job as Attorney General, while 50% disapprove, giving him a net job approval rating of -10. Senator John Cornyn has a net job approval of -13 (35% approve; 48% disapprove).
James Talarico and Gina Hinojosa receive the highest net favorability ratings of all figures and groups tested, +12 for both, though significantly more voters are unfamiliar with Hinojosa (35%) compared to Talarico (18%). A generic Republican candidate receives a +9 favorability rating (50% favorable; 41% unfavorable), compared to -1 rating for a generic Democrat (44% favorable, 45% unfavorable). President Donald Trump’s favorability rating is -3 (47% favorable; 50% unfavorable). Cornyn (33% favorable; 43% unfavorable) and the Democratic Party (43% favorable; 53% unfavorable) both receive a -10 favorability rating, with significantly more voters saying they have no opinion of Cornyn (24%) than of the Democratic Party (4%). Paxton scores the lowest, at -15 (36% favorable; 51% unfavorable; 12% no opinion).
Mayes Middleton (44%) leads Nathan Johnson (41%) by three points in the Attorney General’s race, with 10% of voters still undecided. Libertarian Tom Oxford and independent Omer Khwaja each receive 1% of the vote.
In the Lieutenant Governor’s race, Republican Dan Patrick (47%) leads Democrat Vikki Goodwin (41%) by six points, with Libertarian Anthony Cristo and independent Jeffrey Marshall each receiving 1% of the vote and 8% of voters still undecided.
In the Comptroller race, Republican Donald Huffines (43%) leads Democrat Sarah Eckhardt (41%) by two points, with Libertarian V. Alonzo Echevarria-Garza receiving 1% of the vote and 11% of voters still undecided.
In the race for Agriculture Commissioner, Republican Nate Sheets (44%) leads Democrat Clayton Tucker (40%) by four points, with Libertarian Austin Kelly and Green Party candidate Alfred Molison each receiving 1% of the vote and 11% of voters still undecided.
In the race for Land Commissioner, Republican Dawn Buckingham (44%) leads Democrat Benjamin Flores (40%) by four points, with Libertarian Neil Snider receiving 2% of the vote and 10% still undecided.
In the race for Railroad Commissioner, Republican Bo French (45%) leads Democrat Jon Rosenthal (41%) by four points, with Libertarian Arthur DiBianca receiving 1% of the vote and 9% of voters still undecided.
Affordability and cost of living is the most important issue for voters by a significant margin. Asked to choose the two issues they believe are most important for elected officials in Texas to prioritize in 2026, 50% select affordability and cost of living. Health care access and costs ranks second (23%), while economic growth and job creation ranks third (19%).
When asked which of the Senate candidates they think will do more to tackle the cost-of-living crisis and improve the financial situation of everyday Texans, 48% of voters say Talarico, 38% say Paxton, and 12% are not sure.
When asked which of the Senate candidates they think will do a better job handling issues related to AI and data centers, 43% of voters say Talarico, 36% say Paxton, and 19% are not sure.
"In the Comptroller race, Republican Donald Huffines (43%) leads Democrat Sarah Eckhardt (41%) by two points,"
With a margin of error of 3.3, it would be more correct to say Huffines (who bought Jeffrey Epstein's Zorro ranch in New Mexico) is statistically tied with Sarah Eckhardt.
What is Texas’ fascination with Abbott??