NEW POLL: JAMES TALARICO LEADS KEN PAXTON IN TEXAS SENATE GENERAL ELECTION

Texas Public Opinion Research (TPOR) today released a new poll of likely Texas general election voters, surveying their attitudes on the 2026 races for U.S. Senate, Governor, and Attorney General.

The survey of 1,670 likely voters was conducted from May 27 to May 28, 2026, and has a margin of error of ±2.8 percentage points. The full topline is available here, and crosstabs are available upon request.

The takeaway: Democrat James Talarico leads Ken Paxton 47% to 44% in the U.S. Senate general election, powered by commanding margins with moderates and independents.

Crucially, among Cornyn runoff voters, nearly a third (30%) say that they would vote for Talarico, while 44% would vote for Paxton—23% remain undecided or say that they will not vote. More than half of GOP runoff voters who now plan to support Talarico cite Paxton’s criminality or corruption as their primary reason.

The Top Findings:

1. James Talarico (47%) leads Ken Paxton (44%) by 3 points in the race for U.S. Senate. Seven percent of voters remain undecided. Among those undecided voters pushed to choose today, 19% lean toward Paxton and 17% toward Talarico with 13% leaning toward Libertarian Ted Brown and 50% still not sure.

2. Almost a third of Cornyn runoff voters say that they would vote for Talarico over Paxton in November. Among voters who supported John Cornyn in the Republican Senate runoff, only 44% say that they now plan to vote for Ken Paxton in the general election. 30% say they would vote for Talarico and 23% are either undecided or would not vote in the race.

3. Black voters opt for Talarico, white and Latino voters are split.Talarico leads Paxton with Black voters by a 38-point margin (64% to 26%). When it comes to Latino voters however, the race is currently within the margin of error—42% say they would support Talarico, while 46% say they would support Paxton. 10% of Latino voters are still undecided. Among white voters, the race is a dead heat. 46% say they plan to vote for Paxton compared to 45% for Talarico.

4. Moderate voters in Texas break decisively for Talarico. Talarico leads Paxton among voters who identify as moderate by a 57-point margin (72% to 15%). Among voters who identify as “somewhat conservative” 66% intend to vote for Paxton while 18% plan to vote for Talarico. When asked which candidate is closer to their own political views, voters pick Talarico 43% to 41%. Talarico leads on this measure with moderates (64% to 13%) and independents (57% to 19%), and pulls 11% of somewhat conservative voters. 24% of voters describe Talarico as a “moderate” while 75% of voters view Paxton as very or somewhat conservative.

5. Talarico leads Paxton by 43 points with independents. Among independent voters in Texas, Talarico leads Paxton 64% to 21% with 11% undecided.

6. Affordability and cost of living ranks as the top issue voters want elected officials to prioritize, and they trust Talarico to help. With 23% of voters citing it as their first priority, more than double any other issue, affordability is the defining concern in the state. Voters say Talarico better understands the economic challenges facing working Texans than Paxton (45% to 40%), and that he will do more to lower costs and improve the financial situation of everyday Texans than Paxton (44% to 40%).

7. The educational divide is one of the sharpest splits in the race. Talarico leads college-educated voters by 30 points while Paxton holds a 21-point advantage among non-college voters in Texas.

8. Paxton is the second most unpopular major political figure tested… after John Cornyn. Paxton’s net favorability stands at -19 (38% favorable, 57% unfavorable). He trails Donald Trump (-3 net), Greg Abbott (-6 net), and even a generic “Republican candidate running for office” (+6 net) by wide margins. Talarico holds the second highest net favorability rating of all figures tested at net +7 (47% favorable, 40% unfavorable). Notably, Gina Hinojosa leads all figures tested at +16 net favorability, though 38% of voters remain unfamiliar with her.

9. For Talarico-supporting GOP runoff voters, this race is a referendum on Ken Paxton’s character. When asked in their own words why they are supporting Talarico over Paxton, more than half (51%) of GOP runoff voters who now plan to support Talarico cite Paxton’s criminality or corruption as their primary reason., while an additional 13% point to his personal moral failures. Only 10% give a positive reason for supporting Talarico. Another 10% describe themselves as reluctant voters — supporting Talarico not out of enthusiasm but because they see no acceptable alternative. 7% cite Paxton’s alignment with Donald Trump, and 5% express broader disillusionment with the Republican Party.

10. Greg Abbott leads Gina Hinojosa by 5 points in the Governor’s race. Greg Abbott leads Democrat Gina Hinojosa 46% to 41% with 9% undecided. Hinojosa leads with independents (+27), moderates (+38), college-educated voters (+16) and Black voters (+32). Abbott holds a slim lead among Latino voters (+2).

11. Mayes Middleton leads Nathan Johnson by 5 points in the Attorney General’s race. Republican Mayes Middleton leads Democrat Nathan Johnson 44% to 39%, with 13% still undecided. Johnson leads with independents (+21), moderates (+37), and college-educated voters (+16).