NEW POLL: JAMES TALARICO’S LEAD OVER KEN PAXTON WIDENS IN TEXAS SENATE GENERAL ELECTION, GOV AND AG RACES NECK-AND-NECK

Texas Public Opinion Research (TPOR) today released a new poll of likely Texas general election voters, surveying their attitudes on the 2026 races for U.S. Senate, Governor, and Attorney General.

The survey of 1,048 likely Texas voters was conducted from July 15 to July 17, 2026 and has a margin of error of ±3.4 percentage points. The full topline is available here, and crosstabs are available upon request.

The takeaway: Democrat James Talarico (45%) leads Republican Ken Paxton (40%) by 5 points in the U.S. Senate race, a 2 point increase from TPOR’s post-runoff poll in May. Talarico continues to post strong margins with voters who self-identify as moderate (+34) and independent (+20).

Talarico’s lead is driven by a strong performance on affordability, which 44% of voters rank as their top priority in this election. Voters say Talarico better understands the economic challenges facing working Texans over Paxton by 7 points, and also trust Talarico to lower costs and improve Texans’ financial situations over Paxton by a 9-point margin. Renters and non-college voters trust Talarico on these issues by even wider margins.

In the Governor’s race, Greg Abbott leads Gina Hinojosa by 3 points (45% to 42%) with 10% still undecided. In the Attorney General’s race, Republican Mayes Middleton and Democrat Nathan Johnson are in a dead heat (39% to 38%) with 18% undecided.

Talarico holds the best statewide net favorability rating of any figure we tested (+12) while Paxton holds the worst (-13).

The Top Findings:

1. James Talarico (45%) leads Ken Paxton (40%) by 5 points in the race for U.S. Senate. Fourteen percent of voters remain undecided. Among those undecided voters pushed to choose today, 19% lean toward Paxton and 10% toward Talarico, with 5% leaning toward Libertarian Ted Brown. 66% of respondents are still unsure.

2. Black and Latino voters strongly favor Talarico, while white voters favor Paxton. Talarico leads among Black voters by a 63 point margin (71% to 8%) and among Latino voters by a 46 point margin (66% to 20%), while Paxton leads with white voters by a 20 point margin (53% to 33%).

3. Talarico leads with independents, but many are still undecided. Among independent voters in Texas, Talarico leads Paxton by a 20 point margin (43% to 23%). 29% of independents are still undecided.

4. More than half of moderates favor Talarico over Paxton. Among voters who describe themselves as politically moderate, Talarico leads 54% to 20%, with 23% still undecided. Among voters who identify as “somewhat conservative,” 65% intend to vote for Paxton while 19% plan to vote for Talarico. When asked which candidate is closer to their own political views, voters pick Talarico 41% to 37%. Talarico leads on this measure with moderates (47% to 18%) and independents (40% to 22%), and pulls 18% of somewhat conservative voters. 18% of voters describe Talarico as a “moderate” while 59% of voters view Paxton as very or somewhat conservative.

5. Affordability is top of mind for Texans. Forty-four percent of voters ranked affordability and the cost of living as a top-two priority for elected officials to prioritize in 2026, followed by health care access and costs (21%) and Social Security and Medicare (21%).

6. Talarico is more trusted on affordability. On the defining issue of affordability, voters give Talarico the edge over Paxton. Forty-two percent of voters say Talarico better understands the economic challenges facing working Texans, compared to 35% for Paxton (+7). Voters also trust Talarico more to lower costs and improve Texans’ financial situations, by 43% to 34% (+9).

7. Working-class voters trust Talarico the most on the economy. Renters trust Talarico over Paxton to lower costs and improve their financial situation by 23 points (48% to 25%), and by 22 points on understanding the economic challenges facing working Texans (46% to 24%). Voters without a college degree favor Talarico by 10 points on lowering costs (42% to 32%) and 13 points on understanding the economic challenges facing Texans (42% to 29%).

8. Paxton is now the most unpopular political figure tested. Paxton’s net favorability stands at -13 (33% favorable, 46% unfavorable). He trails Donald Trump (-3 net), Greg Abbott (+1 net), and even a generic “Republican candidate running for office” (+7 net) by wide margins. Talarico holds the highest net favorability rating of any figure tested, at +12 (43% favorable, 31% unfavorable). Notably, Gina Hinojosa is tied for the second-best net favorability at +7 (31% favorable, 24% unfavorable).

9. Greg Abbott continues to lead Democrat Gina Hinojosa in the Governor’s race. Greg Abbott leads Democrat Gina Hinojosa 45% to 42% with 10% undecided. Hinojosa leads with independents (+5), moderates (+18), Black voters (+49), and Latino voters (+38), while Abbott leads among college-educated voters (+9) and white voters (+29).

9. Republican Mayes Middleton leads Democrat Nathan Johnson by just 1 point in the Attorney General’s race. Republican Mayes Middleton leads Democrat Nathan Johnson 39% to 38%, with 18% of voters undecided. Johnson leads with independents (+8), moderates (+25), Black voters (+63), and Latino voters (+33), while Middleton leads among college-educated voters (+10) and white voters (+26).