Texas Public Opinion Research Releases Poll on 2025 State Legislative Issues, 2026 Senate Race

Hey y’all, welcome back! In this post, we’re covering our latest findings from our new poll on 2025 state legislative issues in Texas and the 2026 Senate race:

Texas Public Opinion Research (TPOR), a nonpartisan public opinion initiative that examines what Texans believe and the policies they support, today released a new poll focused on the 2025 legislative session in Texas. The survey takes the electorate’s pulse on broader issues they want lawmakers to tackle and which policy matters they think elected officials from both major parties are addressing, and gauges opinion on specific measures under consideration in Austin this session, such as school vouchers, THC regulation, and psychedelics research investment. And as Attorney General Ken Paxton signals he may run in a Republican primary against Sen. John Cornyn, the survey assesses the sitting senator’s favorability and gauges voters’ appetite for re-electing or replacing him. Additionally, the poll measures public perception of key elected officials and political leaders, including President Donald Trump, Gov. Greg Abbott, and Elon Musk.

Key Poll Takeaways:

• Affordability is Texans’ top concern, and they’re unhappy with how it's being addressed: A plurality of respondents ranked affordability and the cost of living as their top priority (37%), followed by education (28%) and immigration (24%). Nearly three-quarters of the electorate believes Texas legislators are not doing enough to lower costs, and a decisive majority thinks Abbott isn’t either.

• The school voucher bill is unpopular—and a low priority: A majority of voters oppose the Education Savings Account bill, while just a third support it, and the proposal registers in the bottom quartile of policies in terms of importance.

• Partisan attention-perception gap: More than half of voters believe immigration and border security are the top issues for Republican state legislators, outpacing all other issues by 30 points. Meanwhile, Texans perceive Democratic state lawmakers as most focused on abortion and reproductive health issues, followed by education and public schools and affordability and cost of living.

• Meat-and-potatoes, not DEI and crypto: Texans prioritize conventional concerns such as affordability, education, healthcare, taxes, and immigration, while culture war issues like banning DEI programs, requiring Ten Commandments displays in classrooms, and creating a Bitcoin reserve are perceived as niche issues with minimal significance.

• Texans want a say in THC policy: Nearly half of voters (48%) believe the question of whether to ban consumable THC should be put on the ballot rather than decided by the legislature, while 36% want to keep it legal. Only 13% favor an outright ban.

• John Cornyn is vulnerable: Nearly three times as many voters prefer to replace the Republican senator (36%) as those who want to re-elect him (13%), while 27% would consider an alternative. In a hypothetical Republican primary, Ken Paxton holds an 11-point lead over Cornyn.

• Trump’s favorability declined; Elon Musk is unpopular: Musk’s favorability is net negative by 10 points, and Trump's favorability has dropped from +12 post-election in November to -3 in March—a 15-point swing in four months.

• Texas shifted slightly to the center in recent months: Across multiple issues and views of political figures, Texans have shifted slightly to the center since November, becoming less favorable toward Republican leaders and more receptive to moderate political positions.

"With the 2025 legislative session in Austin in full swing, this new data sheds light on the top issues Texans want their elected representatives to tackle," said Luke Warford, director of TPOR. "State lawmakers should focus on voters' priorities and recognize that Texans want them to address bread-and-butter issues like affordability, healthcare, border security, and Social Security and Medicare—not hotly contested culture war issues like displaying the Ten Commandments in public schools and banning DEI."

"This poll highlights that the state's affordability crisis is top of mind for Texans, yet few believe their elected officials are effectively addressing it," said Celinda Lake, president of Lake Research Partners, which conducted the poll. "The data also shows that Cornyn is vulnerable ahead of his re-election bid next year, even as the electorate has shifted toward the center in recent months."

What Voters Want Texas State Lawmakers to Focus On

Affordability and cost of living is the most important political issue for Texas voters by a significant margin. Asked to choose two issues they believe are most important for elected officials in Texas to focus on right now, more than a third select affordability and cost of living. (The vast majority of Texans are dissatisfied with how elected officials are handling this matter; asked if their state legislator is doing enough to lower costs for Texans, 72% respond no and just 11% say yes. Similarly, 60% say no and 21% say yes when presented with the same question about Abbott).

Education and public schools, immigration and border security, and Social Security and Medicare are also among the matters Texans most frequently say they want elected officials to focus on, while public safety, climate change, and cultural issues are the least salient topics.

Top voter priorities (percentage selecting each issue as one of two most important issues for elected officials in Texas to focus on):

1. Affordability and the cost of living: 37%

2. Education and public schools: 28%

3. Immigration and border security: 24%

4. Social Security and Medicare: 21%

5. Taxes: 16%

6. Abortion and reproductive health issues: 15%

7. Health care: 14%

8. Economic growth and job creation: 12%

9. Infrastructure and the electric grid: 11%

10. Oil and gas production: 6%

11. Public safety: 5%

12. Climate change: 4%

13. Cultural issues: 2%

14. Other: 4%

15. Don't know/refused: 1%

The priorities differ by party affiliation. Democrats generally want their elected officials to address affordability and education, with Social Security, abortion, and health care as secondary concerns. Republicans prioritize immigration first, followed by affordability. Independents' priorities more closely align with Democrats, preferring elected officials to tackle affordability, education, Social Security, and health care. Women are significantly more concerned about affordability (43%) than men (31%).

In the survey, voters also rate legislative matters being addressed during the 2025 session on a scale of 0-10, where 10 is the most important an issue could be and 0 the least. The top priorities they believe legislators ought to address are lowering the cost of healthcare and prescription drugs (8.7 mean), protecting privacy of data in Social Security and other government records (8.3), expanding career training, vocational education, and job training programs for high school students and young adults (8.1), and making housing more affordable (8.1).

Notably, among the least important issues are culture war topics like requiring public school classrooms to display the Ten Commandments (4.0) and banning DEI (Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion) initiatives from publicly funded institutions in Texas (4.7). School voucher-related issues also rank low on Texans' to-do list for lawmakers, as does establishing a Bitcoin reserve (2.7) and banning consumable THC (3.1).

Importance of Legislative Issues (0-10 Scale, where a 0 is not important at all and 10 is very important)

1. 8.7 – Lowering the cost of healthcare and prescription drugs

2. 8.3 – Protecting the privacy of people's data in Social Security and other government records

3. 8.1 – Expanding career training, vocational education, and job training programs for high school students and young adults

4. 8.1 – Making housing more affordable

5. 7.9 – Lowering property taxes

6. 7.8 – Raising salaries for teachers who work in public schools

7. 7.6 – Avoiding cuts to Medicaid

8. 7.5 – Investing in water infrastructure

9. 7.0 – Establishing a program to cut waste in Texas government

10. 7.0 – Dealing with immigration and the border

11. 6.9 – Establishing a program to improve government efficiency in Texas

12. 6.6 – Expanding access to Medicaid

13. 5.7 – Expanding nuclear power in Texas

14. 4.8 – Banning DEI (Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion) initiatives from publicly funded institutions in Texas

15. 4.2 – Establishing Education Savings Accounts (school vouchers) to help partially fund private and religious education

16. 4.0 – Requiring classrooms to display the Ten Commandments in public schools

17. 3.8 – Establishing school vouchers to help partially fund private and religious education

18. 3.1 – Banning consumable THC in Texas

19. 2.7 – Establishing the Texas Bitcoin Reserve

Party Focus Perception

Voters were asked to choose two issues they see the two major parties in the legislative chamber as most focused on. Immigration and border security is far and away the issue voters believe Republicans in the state legislature are most focused on; more than half of voters (55%) selected it as a top two issue. A significant share of voters also believe GOP lawmakers in Austin are focused on taxes, oil and gas production, and education and public schools. Overall, Democrats are viewed as aligned more closely with voters' priorities on top issues like affordability, education, healthcare, and Social Security and Medicare, while Republicans are seen as prioritizing immigration and border security, as well as taxes.

Notably, only 14% of voters think Republicans are focused on affordability and cost of living issues, despite this being the top concern for Texans. Even among Republican voters, only 20% believe their party’s politicians will address affordability concerns.

Voter Perception of Republican State Lawmakers' Priorities:

1. Immigration & border security (55%)

2. Taxes (22%)

3. Oil & gas production (20%)

4. Education & public schools (19%)

5. Affordability & cost of living (14%)

6. Economic growth & job creation (12%)

7. Abortion & reproductive health issues (10%)

8. Infrastructure & the electric grid (7%)

9. Cultural issues (7%)

10. Social Security & Medicare (7%)

11. Public safety (5%)

12. Health care (4%)

13. Climate change (1%)

14. Other (4%)

15. Don't know/refused (7%)

Voter Perception of Democratic State Lawmakers' Priorities:

1. Abortion & reproductive health issues (32%)

2. Education & public schools (28%)

3. Affordability & cost of living (22%)

4. Cultural issues (20%)

5. Climate change (14%)

6. Social Security & Medicare (13%)

7. Health care (11%)

8. Immigration & border security (11%)

9. Economic growth & job creation (8%)

10. Taxes (7%)

11. Infrastructure & the electric grid (6%)

12. Public safety (3%)

13. Oil & gas production (3%)

14. Other (5%)

15. Don't know/refused (9%)

Texans' Views of Key Political Figures and the 2026 Senate Race

Trump is viewed favorably by 47% of the Texas electorate and unfavorably by 50% (-3). This represents the first time TPOR's polling has registered Trump's favorability rating as net negative. Abbott's net favorability stands at -13 during the same period—an 18-point decline in net favorability. (More on that below).

Of the political figures surveyed, Colin Allred has the highest net favorability, at +7 (37% favorable, 30% unfavorable). But despite being on the ballot in November, one-third of voters have never heard of him or have no opinion of him.

The least popular elected official, political figure, or group of politicians tested is John Cornyn; just 21% view him favorably, while 43% view him unfavorably (-22). Looking ahead to his November 2026 Senate re-election:

• 13% of voters say they would vote to re-elect Cornyn

• 27% would consider someone else

• 36% want to replace him

• 24% don’t know/refused

Meanwhile, Paxton is reportedly considering a primary challenge against Cornyn. Among Republican voters, Paxton (who himself has an underwater favorability rating of -5 among all voters) leads Cornyn by 11 points (38% Paxton to 27% Cornyn) in a hypothetical matchup, with 35% either undecided, selecting "other," refused to answer, or are not planning to vote in that race.

Elon Musk—who is based in Texas and plays a key role in the Trump administration—is viewed favorably by 43% of voters and unfavorably by 53% (-10). He is only viewed net positively by men (+2) and white voters (+1) and is the least popular figure among Black voters (-62).

Legislative Agenda Items: School Vouchers, Psychedelics Research, THC and Budget Surplus

School Vouchers

The poll shows that there is a significant gap between the Texas Legislature's focus on Education Savings Accounts (school vouchers) and actual voter priorities and preferences. Despite being a legislative centerpiece, the program faces substantial public skepticism and ranks low in importance. Specifically, only 34% of Texas voters support Education Savings Accounts, while 56% actively oppose the measure. Almost half of voters (49%) express strong opposition to the voucher proposal, compared to just 26% expressing strong support.

Even among Republicans, voucher support is not close to universal, with 56% supporting them and about one-third (30%) opposing the proposal. Additionally, both voucher approaches rank near the bottom of the 20 legislative priorities tested; Education Savings Accounts registered at just 4.2 out of 10 in priority ranking and traditional school vouchers ranked even worse, at 3.8 out of 10. The poll finds voters prefer and want lawmakers to prioritize other education policies, such as expanding career training, vocational education, and job training programs (8.1 out of 10), and raising teacher salaries in public schools (7.8 out of 10).

Psychedelics Research

73% of Texas voters support investing in research to study the medical use of psychedelic drugs to treat veterans with mental illness or PTSD, with 34% strongly supporting the initiative, and only 18% expressing opposition—amounting to a decisive +55 net support. Backing for the measure is bipartisan, with 62% of Republicans and 83% of Democrats in favor, demonstrating a broad mandate for policymakers to research psychedelics and their potential mental health benefits for veterans.The level of support in Texas for studying psychedelic drugs—exceeding that of other states—makes it one of the most widely favored policy proposals in the survey, with greater backing than many more conventional policies.

THC Regulation

Texans overwhelmingly reject the state legislature banning THC products. When asked about potential THC legislation, only 13% of voters want to ban these products. A plurality (48%) believe the issue should be put to voters as a ballot initiative, while 36% want to keep THC legal without a vote. And with a priority score of just 3.1 out of 10, banning consumable THC ranks as one of the least important issues for Texas voters, ranking 19th out of 20 issues tested.

A plurality of Democratic voters (47%) favor keeping consumable THC products legal, 45% want voters to decide the policy on it at the ballot box, and just 5% support a ban. Even among Republican voters, only 22% support banning THC, while 50% prefer letting voters decide and 25% want to keep it legal.

Budget Surplus

On the issue of Texas’ nearly $24 billion surplus, voters are split fairly evenly on how they believe the money should be used.

• 33% prefer investing the money in education, healthcare, public safety, and infrastructure

• 27% prefer focusing on lowering property and other taxes

• 39% prefer a combination of both approaches

• 1% were unsure or refused to answer

Housing and Other Issues

Housing Affordability Solutions

A majority of Texas voters support all tested policies aimed at addressing housing affordability. But a significantly higher share of the electorate prefers financial measures (tax cuts, subsidies, investments) to regulatory and zoning changes aimed at encouraging the development of more housing. The poll shows there's broad agreement that housing affordability is a problem that needs solutions, but significant disagreement about whether a deregulatory framework is the right approach. The solutions with the broadest level of support all involve direct government intervention of some kind (tax relief, investments, incentives, tenant protections), while voters are divided on cutting red tape and relaxing zoning laws.

Policies with broad support:

• Cutting property taxes: 93% support (70% strongly), 6% oppose (+87 net)

• Investing in affordable housing: 85% support (54% strongly), 11% oppose (+74 net)

• Encouraging development of low and middle-income housing: 85% support (56% strongly), 12% oppose (+73 net)

• Investing in affordable housing for low-income and working families: 81% support (47% strongly), 16% oppose (+65 net)

• Limiting rent increases and enacting tenant protections: 77% support (57% strongly), 20% oppose (+57 net)

• Passing renter and tenant protections: 77% support (44% strongly), 15% oppose (+62 net)

Housing policies where Texans are more evenly divided include:

• Changing zoning to allow diverse housing types in all neighborhoods: 49% support (21% strongly), 47% oppose (+2 net)

• Cutting red tape for housing developers: 51% support (25% strongly), 43% oppose (+8 net)

Nuclear Power

Texas voters show strong support for expanding nuclear power in the state, with 68% in favor and only 22% opposed. Unlike in other states where there are significant gender divides on nuclear issues, support in Texas is consistently high across demographic groups. Specifically, in this March TPOR poll, there is just a 9 point difference between men and women in their support for nuclear power (73% vs 64%, respectively), while in a national poll conducted by Pew last May, 70% of men favored more nuclear power plants to generate electricity compared to only 44% of women. In a state known for its energy production, expanding nuclear power (with a priority score of 5.7) receives significantly more voter support than many of the hot-button culture war issues being discussed in the Texas media and political ecosystem.

Abortion Views

Contrary to the state’s restrictive policies on abortion, more than half, 56%, of Texans identify as pro-choice, while 42% identify as anti-abortion. Specifically, 34% believe "abortions should be legal and generally available subject to only limited regulation," 21% believe "regulation is necessary, although it should remain legal in many circumstances," 33% think "abortion should be legal only in the most extreme cases, such as to save the life of the woman or in the cases of rape or incest," and 8% believe "all abortions should be made illegal." Almost all Democrats (86%) support pro-choice positions, along with a majority of independents (59%) and almost a third of Republicans (29%).

Post-Election Season Depolarization: A Texas Phenomenon

The first poll of 2025 shows that Texas voters have shifted their views toward the center since the days immediately after the 2024 election. On an array of issues and political figures, Texans hold less conservative opinions now compared to November 2024—becoming less favorable toward Republican elected officials and more receptive to liberal viewpoints and politicians.

Trump’s Popularity Decline

The data shows a significant decline in President Donald Trump's favorability ratings between November and March. From November to March, Trump's favorability rating dropped from 55% favorable, 43% unfavorable (+12) to 47% favorable, 50% unfavorable (-3)—a 15-point swing. Additionally, the president’s "very favorable" rating dropped from 42% in November 2024 to 37% in March 2025.

Greg Abbott Favorability Decline

Abbott also experienced a post-election decline. From November to March, Abbott's favorability rating dropped from 50% favorable, 45% unfavorable (+5) to 41% favorable, 54% unfavorable (-13)—an 18-point swing. However, from August to March, Ken Paxton's favorability rating improved from 32% favorable, 45% unfavorable (-13) to 35% favorable, 40% unfavorable (-5)—an 8-point improvement. Despite this positive shift, he remains underwater by 5 points.

Ideological Self-Identification Shifts

The March 2025 survey provides evidence of slight post-election moderation in ideological self-identification:

• The share of Texans identifying as conservative (0-4 on the scale) decreased from 43% in November to 38% in March

• Those identifying as moderate increased from 26% to 31%

• Mean ideological score on a 0-10 scale (where 0 is very conservative and 10 is very liberal) moved from 4.4 in November 2024 to 4.5 in March 2025

Abortion Sentiment

The March 2025 poll finds a significant shift in abortion views compared to the election period. In the November 2024 TPOR poll, the pro-choice/anti-choice split was 51%-45%, but it is now 56%-42%—an 8-point net gain for pro-choice positions and the highest level of support for reproductive rights registered since TPOR’s September 2024 launch. The detailed poll data shows this shift includes a 2-point increase in those who believe "abortions should be legal and generally available" (from 32% to 34%) and a 2-point increase in those who believe "regulation is necessary but abortion should remain legal in many circumstances" (from 19% to 21%). Meanwhile, those who believe abortion should be legal only in extreme cases dropped from 39% to 33%—a 6-point decline.

Colin Allred’s Popularity Boost

Immediately after the November 2024 election, then-Rep. Colin Allred's favorability rating was slightly underwater at -1 (42% favorable, 43% unfavorable). But now, Allred's favorability rating has improved to +7 (37% favorable, 30% unfavorable). This boost came as the share of Texas voters who had no opinion or never heard of Allred more than doubled, climbing from 16% to 33%. It appears that views of the former congressman and Senate candidate improved as memory of attacks against him during the peak of campaign season waned.

About the Poll

The poll, conducted by Lake Research Partners, surveyed 700 registered voters in Texas from March 7 through March 10. It was conducted over the phone and online in English and Spanish, with an oversample of 50 Black voters. The poll has a margin of error of ±3.7 percentage points. The data were weighted by gender, age, region, race, party identification, education, 2024 presidential vote recall, primary vote history, language of the interview, turnout score, partisan score, and 2024 presidential and Senate statewide election results. The toplines can be found here, and the crosstabs are available upon request. More analysis of the data will be available here in the coming weeks.

About Texas Public Opinion Research

Texas Public Opinion Research (TPOR) is a first-of-its-kind, nonpartisan initiative dedicated to studying and analyzing Texans’ beliefs, attitudes, values, and policy preferences. TPOR seeks to play a leading role in providing high-quality data and analysis that helps researchers, academics, government officials, policymakers, nonprofit groups, and businesses understand a diverse, complex, and too-often misunderstood state. TPOR also helps Texans better understand the views of their fellow residents. TPOR will look beyond issues to examine the values shaping voters’ opinions and track the sentiments of key demographics over time. Through ongoing, comprehensive public opinion research, TPOR aims to illuminate what Texans want and how they feel about the condition and direction of their state. This will help elected officials and policymakers align their actions with the interests and needs of the people they serve, allowing the public to hold elected officials accountable. TPOR aims to close the gap between decision-makers and the public, ensuring policymaking is driven by the voices of Texans, rather than misconceptions fostered by unreliable information or misrepresentation by advocacy groups. TPOR will conduct research on a quarterly basis, providing clear, digestible, and actionable insights into voter sentiment on the state's most pressing issues. With no obligation to any particular point of view, political position, partisan group, or special interest, TPOR is committed to serving as the go-to neutral source of reliable information about the Texas population and electorate.

Leadership

TPOR is directed by Luke Warford, a former statewide Democratic candidate in Texas and Chief Strategy Officer of the Texas Democratic Party. Before running for the Texas Railroad Commission in 2022, Warford had a career spanning politics, consulting, and tech, and was a Fulbright-Clinton Fellow in Ethiopia. He earned a master's degree from the London School of Economics and currently lives in Austin, TX.

TPOR’s pollster is Celinda Lake, a leading pollster and president of Lake Research Partners. Known for her cutting-edge research on the economy, health care, education, and more, she advises foundations, advocacy groups, and government agencies. Lake co-authored What Women Really Want and A Question of Respect and was a key pollster for Joe Biden's 2020 campaign. In 2024, she received the AAPC Lifetime Achievement Award.