The Real Ideological Landscape of the Texas Democratic Senate Primary

Hey y’all welcome back!

As the Democratic senate primary in Texas heats up, online chatter around the race has been buzzing. Outlets like the Dallas Morning News have framed the race as a showdown between the progressive and moderate wings of the Democratic party in Texas; however, our research suggests the divisiveness is far more nuanced than a binary fight. Reducing the race to “Crockett the outspoken fighter” and “Talarico the coalition builder” risks discounting the central demographic dynamics shaping voter motivation as this contest heads towards the finish line on March 3rd.

In today’s installment we’ll be diving right into the ideological debate by discussing voters’ ideological perceptions of Jasmine Crockett and James Talarico, as well as analyzing the demographic splits across these perceptions. If you’d like to explore this data further, please find our full topline and deck here.

KEY TAKEAWAYS:

• Uncertainty around Talarico: While a majority of voters (57%) describe Jasmine Crockett as liberal, voters are split when it comes to James Talarico, with a plurality of voters (30%) unsure of how to describe his ideology.

• Crockett seen as liberal, Talarico seen as moderate: Crockett is most likely to be described as liberal by college-educated (72%) and female voters (54%), while Talarico is significantly more likely to be viewed as moderate, specifically among Black voters (32%) and non-college-educated voters (26%).

• The Demographic Divide: White voters (32%) are more likely than Black voters (24%) to characterize Crockett as very liberal by an eight-point-margin, while for Talarico, Black voters (32%) are more likely than white voters (24%) to characterize him as moderate by an identical margin

Voter Ideological Perception: James Talarico

Among Democratic primary voters, ideological perspectives of either candidate are fluid and ambiguous.

Respondents in this poll do not place James Talarico neatly along the ideological spectrum. 9% describe him as very liberal, 26% as somewhat liberal, and 28% describe him as moderate. Just 7% describe him as conservative. Notably the largest share of voters, 30%, are unsure of how to describe his ideology.

Among Talarico’s supporters, a majority (58%) characterize him as liberal, while Crockett supporters are most likely to characterize him as moderate (32%).

Black voters (32%) are also more likely than white voters (24%) to describe Talarico as moderate and less likely to describe him as liberal (23% vs. 43%). 34% female voters were unsure about how to categorize him, while a plurality (31%) of male voters view him as a moderate (31%). College-educated voters are more likely to classify Talarico as liberal (44%) in comparison to non-college-educated voters, who are more likely to call him moderate (26%).

Voter Ideological Perception: Jasmine Crockett

When voters were asked to describe Jasmine Crockett’s approach to politics, 57% of respondents characterized her as liberal (29% very liberal, 28% somewhat liberal) and 16% as moderate. Voter perceptions of Crockett’s ideological underpinnings are slightly more calcified compared to Talarico. While a plurality of Texans in this poll were unsure of how to describe Talarico’s politics (30%), just 21% report such a sentiment when it comes to Crockett’s ideological disposition.

Talarico supporters are far more likely to classify her as very liberal (42%), while her supporters are divided between moderate (22%) and very liberal (32%). More than half (53%) of undecided voters were unsure how to classify her.

The diversity of perceptions of Jasmine Crockett’s ideology varies across demographic groups. Black voters are more inclined than white voters to view Crockett as moderate (28% vs. 13%) and less likely to describe her as very liberal (24% vs. 32%). An overwhelming majority of college-educated voters (72%) classify her as liberal, compared to 44% of non-college voters who brand her as liberal. Men are also more likely than women to describe Crockett as liberal (61% vs. 54%).

We hope you enjoyed the third installment of our Democratic Senate Primary breakdown in Texas. Stay tuned for more illuminating data on the dynamics of this race and beyond next week!