They all want to win: New poll shows how Democratic primary voters are weighing electability and turnout in the Texas Senate race

Hey y’all, welcome back! In this post, we’re covering the latest findings from our first poll in 2026 which covers the upcoming Democratic Senate primary in Texas.

Texas Public Opinion Research (TPOR), a nonpartisan public opinion initiative that examines what Texans believe and the policies they support, today released a new poll focused on the 2026 Democratic Senate primary race between U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett and State Rep. James Talarico. In addition to head-to-head matchup numbers, this survey of Democratic primary voters explores voter familiarity with and perceptions of the two candidates, Crockett and Talarico’s respective supporters’ reasons for supporting them (and doubts about their opponent), and who voters see as best positioned to win the general election for U.S. Senate in Texas. The poll also takes a deep look at what primary voters think it will take for a Democratic candidate to win the general election for U.S. Senate in Texas, including which demographic groups Democrats need to make gains with, candidate attributes, persuading Trump voters and turning out the base, and electability—and how they see the two candidates stacking up on these measures.

The survey of 1,290 likely Texas Democratic primary voters conducted from January 14 to January 21, 2026, and has a margin of error of ±3.7 percentage points. The full topline, deck, and recording of our presentation is available here, and crosstabs are available upon request.

Key Findings

• Likely Democratic primary voters are statistically tied between US Rep. Jasmine Crockett (38%) and State Rep. James Talarico (37%) in the Senate primary. Twenty-one percent remain undecided.

• Crockett leads with Black, non-college-educated, and middle-aged voters, while Talarico leads with white, Latino, and college-educated voters.

• Likely Democratic primary voters say they are seeing and hearing from Crockett (56%) more often than Talarico (41%).

• Talarico voters are most motivated by his character, integrity, and relatability (32%), and his electability (16%).

• Crockett supporters are most motivated by her people-first advocacy (22%), her values alignment (17%), and her competence, intelligence, and experience (16%).

• On the question of which candidate is more likely to appeal to voters Democrats need to win in 2026 and beyond, Talarico holds a two-point advantage (38% to 36%), with 25% saying they’re not sure.

• Likely Democratic primary voters overall believe that Crockett is more likely than Talarico to turn out loyal Democrats by 10 points, 42% to 32%.

• Talarico supporters believe his demographics and religious messaging make him the better candidate, and are worried about the bias Crockett would face.

• Crockett supporters point to her authenticity and fight as why she can win, and worry that Talarico’s name ID and visibility are too low to be viable.

“Crockett and Talarico are running neck-and-neck in the Texas Democratic primary for U.S. Senate,” said Luke Warford, director of TPOR. “Texas Democrats are saying loud and clear that they want a candidate who puts the general election in play by both appealing to Trump voters and energizing the Democratic base. Both Crockett and Talarico supporters believe their candidate possesses those qualities, with an advantage to Talarico on winning new voters and an advantage to Crockett on base mobilization.”

As the election draws nearer, both candidates will have to make the case to Democratic voters that they can get the job done in November.”

Senate Primary

Head-to-Head Matchup: Crockett and Talarico

The poll finds Texas Democratic primary voters about evenly divided between US Rep. Jasmine Crockett (38%) and State Rep. James Talarico (37%), with 21% undecided.

Black voters overwhelmingly support Crockett, at 75%, with only 12% undecided. Talarico leads among white voters (44% to 30%) and Latino voters (41% to 31%). Twenty-five percent of Latino voters and 21% of white voters are undecided.

Talarico’s highest level of support comes from college-educated voters, at 46%, compared to 34% for Crockett. At 42%, Crockett leads Talarico among non-college-educated voters by 15 points.

Younger voters (ages 18-34) are roughly split between Talarico (34%) and Crockett (33%), with 28% undecided. Crockett holds an eight-point advantage among 35-to-49 year-olds (44%) and a three-point advantage among 50-to-64 year-olds (40%), while Talarico leads with voters ages 65+ by four points (39%).

Crockett holds a four-point advantage among female voters (39%), while Talarico holds a one-point advantage among male voters (38%).

Candidate Favorability, Familiarity, Visibility, and Perceived Ideology

With a little over a month to go until Primary Day, Democratic primary voters are more familiar with Crockett and say they are seeing and hearing from her more often.

Seventy-seven percent have an opinion on Crockett and just 15% say they’ve never heard of her. Fifty-eight percent have an opinion on Talarico, and 27% say they’ve never heard of him. Crockett’s favorability rating is net +61, with 69% viewing her favorably and 8% viewing her unfavorably. Talarico’s favorability rating is net +47, with 52% viewing him favorably and 5% viewing him unfavorably.

A majority of voters, 56%, say that in the last few weeks, they’ve seen or heard from Crockett very (23%) or somewhat (33%) often. Meanwhile, 41% say they’ve seen or heard from Talarico very (15%) or somewhat (26%) often.

Both candidates are reaching voters most on social media, where 47% say they’ve seen or heard from Crockett in the last few weeks and 35% say the same for Talarico, followed by television or cable news, where 39% say they’ve seen or heard from Crockett and 30% have seen or heard from Talarico. Crockett has an advantage on word-of-mouth reach, with 13% saying they’ve heard about her from friends or family, compared with 9% for Talarico.

Fifty-seven percent of voters describe Crockett as liberal, with 29% calling her “very” liberal, while just 16% see her as moderate. Voters are more split in their perceptions of Talarico. Thirty-five percent describe him as liberal, and 28% view him as moderate (+8 compared to Crockett).

Fifty-eight of Talarico supporters characterize him as liberal, while Crockett supporters are more likely to describe him as moderate (32%). Talarico supporters are far more likely to see Crockett as very liberal (42%), while Crockett supporters are more divided, with 32% describing her as very liberal and 22% as moderate. Black voters (32%) are more likely than white voters (24%) to describe Talarico as moderate and less likely to describe him as liberal (23% vs. 43%). Black voters are also more likely than white voters to view Crockett as moderate (28% vs. 13%) and less likely to describe her as very liberal (24% vs. 32%).

Crockett and Talarico Supporter Motivation and Confidence

Of Democratic primary voters who are supporting either Crockett or Talarico, an overwhelming majority, 79%, express conviction that their preferred candidate can win the general election for U.S. Senate in Texas. Intensity of confidence is somewhat higher among Crockett supporters: 40% are “very” convinced she can win, and 39% are “somewhat” convinced. Thirty-six percent of Talarico supporters are “very” convinced he can win and 44% are “somewhat” convinced.

Supporters of Talarico and Crockett give differing reasons for supporting their preferred candidate. In open-ended questions probing why Texas Democrats support the candidates, Talarico supporters are most motivated by his character, integrity, and relatability (32%). They also cite his electability and strategic voting (16%), Talarico’s alignment with their policy preferences and shared principles (14%), and his positioning as a candidate of change, anti-establishment, and anti-MAGA (11%).

Crockett supporters are most motivated by her people-first advocacy around fairness and justice (22%), her values alignment with Democratic, liberal, and progressive agendas (17%), her competence, intelligence, and experience (16%), as well as her positioning as an outspoken, fearless truth-teller (14%) and her opposition to Republicans and Trump in confronting their wrongdoing (11%).

Undecided voters are looking for a candidate who has integrity, honesty, and transparency (28%), has a working- and middle-class focus with anti-corporate priorities (21%), and shows opposition to Trump and the GOP and a partisan fighting spirit (12%).

Voter Views on Persuasion, Turnout, and Electiability

Democratic primary voters overall see working-class (28%), Latino (27%), and young (27%) voters as the groups Democrats most need to win back or make gains with in order to be competitive in Texas in 2026 and beyond. Talarico supporters most prioritize working-class (34%), Latino (31%), and young (28%) voters, while Crockett supporters most prioritize young (29%), Latino (28%), and working-class (25%) voters.

Eighty-eight percent of voters believe it is important for the Democratic Senate nominee to be able to persuade and win over Trump voters, with 66% saying it’s “very” important, including 62% of undecided voters. Notably, seventy-four percent of female voters say it’s “very” important, compared to 55% of male voters who say the same.

Compared to Talarico supporters (66%), a slightly higher share of Crockett supporters (69%) say the eventual nominee’s ability to make gains with Trump voters is “very” important. Crockett supporters (23%) are also slightly more likely than Talarico supporters (20%) to say that Trump voters are among the groups Democrats most need to win back.

Texas Democrats are split on which candidate is more likely to appeal to the voters that they believe Democrats will need to win in Texas in 2026 and beyond, with 38% believing Talarico has more appeal and 36% saying Crockett has more appeal. Notably, among Talarico supporters, 92% believe that Talarico is more likely to appeal to these voters, while 76% of Crockett supporters say the same of her.

However, Texas Democrats believe that Crockett (42%) is more likely than Talarico (32%) to turn out loyal Democratic voters in 2026 and beyond. Supporters of both Crockett and Talarico believe their preferred candidate is capable of motivating base turnout: 83% among Crockett supporters, 80% among Talarico supporters, but undecided voters break toward Crockett, 18% to 12%.

Eighty-three percent of voters say electability is an important factor in their decision of which candidate to support. Fifty-six percent of Talarico supporters say it is “very” important to their decision, while 50% of Crockett supporters say the same. Fifty-two percent of undecided voters say it is “very” important to their decision and 28% say it is “somewhat” important. The share of younger voters (ages 18-34) (45%), Black (46%), and non-college-educated (47%) voters who say electability is “very” important is lower, while it’s higher for voters ages 50-64 (56%), Latino voters (56%), and college-educated voters (55%).

Voter Views on Which Candidate Can Win the General Election and Why

Talarico holds a slight advantage on who Democratic primary voters believe is most likely to defeat a Republican candidate for U.S. Senate in Texas, 32% to 27%. Seventy-seven percent of Talarico supporters say he is better positioned to win the general election, while 15% believe both candidates are equally likely. However, just 57% of Crockett supporters say she is more likely to win the general election, with 25% saying both candidates are equally likely.

To probe deeper on this, we asked supporters of both candidates open-ended questions about why they think their preferred Democratic candidate would be most likely to defeat a Republican candidate in a general election for the U.S. Senate in Texas, and why the other Democratic candidate would be less likely to win the general election.

Talarico supporters cite his demographic advantage as a white male Christian (26%), his moderate/mainstream positioning and broad electability (20%), his religious appeal and faith-based messaging (15%), and his character, integrity, and anti-corruption message (12%) as the top reasons for his general election viability. These same Talarico supporters worry that Crockett would fare worse in a general election due to intersectional bias against her as a Black woman (31%), her polarizing communication style and personality polarization (17%), and generic bias against candidates who are women (17%) or Black (10%).

Crockett supporters believe she would perform better in a general election due to her authentic, relatable, “for the people” approach (19%), her positioning as a tough fighter who won’t back down (18%), her ability to build a coalition and mobilize key demographics (14%), and her ability as a persuasive communicator and strong debater (13%). Crockett supporters worry that Talarico would be hamstrung in a general election by his low name recognition and visibility (41%), issues related to his trustworthiness, character, and morals (14%), weak campaigning or lack of fight (14%), and his insufficient experience and qualifications (10%).

What Voters Want from Democratic Leaders in Texas—and How Talarico and Crockett Stack Up

Democratic primary voters identified electorally-minded attributes as the most important qualities they want in Texas Democratic leaders: expanding the Democratic coalition by appealing to independents and swing voters (+85 important), energizing the Democratic base (+85), and focusing on a message of unity rather than division (+84).

However, voters are split on which Senate primary candidate demonstrates these qualities. They are especially divided on who will be best at expanding the coalition, awarding Crockett a one-point advantage, 36% to 35%. Crockett has a clear advantage on energizing the Democratic base (+22), while Talarico has a narrower advantage on focusing on a message of unity (+3).

Both candidates find their biggest advantages on issues voters prioritize less: Crockett holds significant margins on fighting back against Trump (+36) and standing up to Republicans (+31), while Talarico finds his largest margins on working with Republicans when possible (+8) and persuading Trump voters to consider voting for Democrats (+6).

Top Issues: Democratic Primary Voters

Affordability and cost of living is the most important political issue for Texas Democratic primary voters by a significant margin. Asked to choose the two issues they believe are most important for elected officials in Texas to prioritize in 2026, more than a half (52%) select affordability and cost of living. Health care access and costs (38%) ranks second, with all other issues selected by fewer than 20% of voters.

Voter priorities (percentage selecting each issue as one of the top-two issues that elected officials should prioritize in 2026):

1. Affordability and the cost of living: 52%

2. Health care access and costs: 38%

3. Social Security and Medicare 19%

4. Economic growth and job creation 17%

5. Democracy and voting rights 17%

6. Climate change and the environment: 10%

7. Education and public schools: 9%

8. Abortion and reproductive health issues: 9%

9. Immigration: 8%

10. Taxes: 4%

11. Public safety: 4%

12. Border security: 2%

13. Infrastructure and the electric grid: 2%

14. Regulating artificial intelligence: 2%

15. Oil and gas production: -

16. Other: 1%

17. Don’t know: 1%

Gubernatorial & Attorney General Primaries

Gina Hinojosa leads the Democratic primary for Governor of Texas with 29%, with all other candidates in single digits. 59% of primary voters remain undecided in that race.

The Democratic primary for Attorney General of Texas remains remarkably underdeveloped. Nathan Johnson leads with 10%, followed by Joe Jaworski with 5% and Tony Box at 2%. Fully 78% of Democratic primary voters remain undecided in that race.