What Drove Voters in the Senate Race
A look at why Texans voted the way they did in the 2024 Senate race.
Hey y’all, welcome back! In today’s post, we’re jumping straight into the latest findings from TPOR’s post-election poll on the U.S. Senate race in Texas between Congressman Colin Allred and Senator Ted Cruz.
Here are some of our key takeaways:
Cruz Secures Victory with Key Margins: Ted Cruz defeated Colin Allred by 9 points (53% to 44%). In our survey 51% of respondents said they voted for Cruz, while 42% said they voted for Allred, with 3% refusing to answer. Cruz won with independents by 5 points.
Popularity and Ideology Shifts Hurt Allred: As Allred became better known, his favorability dropped, especially among Republicans and independents. We saw meaningful changes in favorability from our August poll to our November poll.
Different Vulnerabilities Defined the Race: Criticisms of Allred centered on ideological concerns, with voters labeling him "too liberal" and out of touch with Texas values. For Cruz, attacks focused on personal flaws, including being "in it for himself" and his trip to Cancun during the 2021 Texas grid failure.
How the Senate Race Shook Out
In TPOR’s latest poll, 51% of respondents reported voting for Sen. Ted Cruz, while 42% backed Rep. Colin Allred, with 3% refusing to answer. Cruz secured independent voters in Texas by a 5-point margin (39% to 34%), while Allred won the Latino Texan vote by 8 points (50% to 42%).
Favorability and Ideology
In the Senate race between Rep. Colin Allred and Sen. Ted Cruz, both candidates had similar favorability levels, according to TPOR’s findings. Cruz had a net favorability of -2 (47% favorable, 49% unfavorable), while Allred’s was -1 (42% favorable, 43% unfavorable).
This finding represents a meaningful change from our earlier polling. In our August poll, Allred enjoyed a strong +14 net favorability, but 44% of voters had no opinion of him or didn’t recognize his name. By November, that figure had dropped to 15%, reflecting increased name recognition—but at a cost. As voters got to know Allred, his popularity declined, particularly among Republicans and independents. His net favorability with independents dropped from +15 in August to +2 in November. Together, these factors contributed to Allred’s drop in favorability.
Shifting perceptions of candidate ideology may have also played a role in Allred’s favorability slippage between August and November. By Election Day, voters rated Colin Allred's ideology as more liberal, scoring him 7.4 on a 0-10 scale, up from 6.8 in August. In contrast, Ted Cruz was rated 1.9, slightly closer to the statewide average of 4.4, making him appear more aligned with the average Texan ideologically. As the campaign heated up and ad spending increased, Allred’s perceived shift left eroded his favorability, particularly among Republicans and independents.
Issue Importance
Our research showed that the Senate race echoed the Presidential contest, with voters prioritizing cost of living (47%) and immigration (47%). Democrats zeroed in on abortion rights (53%) and democracy (39%), while Republicans overwhelmingly focused on immigration (82%) and cost of living (67%). Independents largely aligned with Republicans on priorities, though to a lesser degree, with 49% naming cost of living and 38% citing immigration as top issues.
The Message
When asked about Allred’s message, Texans felt his campaign emphasized women’s rights/abortion (13%), advocating for all Texans (11%), and civil rights (9%), though some viewed him as aiming to move the state in a more liberal direction (8%).
Cruz’s message, on the other hand, was seen as focusing on border security (16%), conservative principles (7%), Texas values, support for Trump (6%), and anti-trans policies (7%).
Candidate Vulnerabilities
When Texans were asked about potential reasons to not vote for the pair of Senate candidates, a clear contrast emerged. Objections to Allred related to ideological and policy differences, while objections to Cruz were rooted in personality and character concerns.
The most persuasive attack against Allred was that he is "too liberal and does not share our Texas values" (21%). For Cruz, the top critique was that he is "in it for himself—not us" (12%), followed by his "abandoning Texas during the electric grid crisis" (11%) and his support for a national abortion ban (11%).
Thanks for reading today’s post! Stay tuned for more polling and analysis from TPOR, and if you found this post useful, please share with friends and family, and most importantly, subscribe for free!